Europees transportsysteem dreigt steeds vaker in de knoop te raken door weerextremen vrtnws.be/p.w79VW8YpM

Zal Europees transportsysteem steeds vaker in de knoop raken door weerextremen? | VRT NWS Nieuws

De transportinfrastructuur in Europa is niet klaar voor de klimaatverandering. Dat blijkt uit een nieuwe studie waaraan onder meer de VUB meewerkte. "We zien dat wegen, spoorwegen, havens, luchthavens...

vrtnws.be

“So next time someone tells you Canada’s fires can be solved by raking the forests, you can point out that the thing filling their sky with smoke is a lightning-struck, drought-primed boreal forest doing what a warming climate is making it do more and more often.”

Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management

Higher fire season temperatures are strongly correlated with increased area burned

theclimatebrink.com

With all the July model runs now in, it is very likely that 2026 will see the largest El Niño event since records began in the late 1800s – and potentially by a truly mind-blowing margin. The median estimate is now 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record (2.75C). www.theclimatebrink....

Recent Belgian Heatwave Declared Deadliest on Record: “the situation during the peak weekend was so severe that excess mortality surpassed even the worst weekend of the COVID-19 pandemic. Between June 22nd and June 27th, a staggering 1,747 excess deaths were recorded.” #Belgium #heatwave #europe

June 2026 data from Copernicus ECMWF offered another stark reminder of our changing #climate: - Western Europe recorded its warmest June on record - Globally it was the 2nd warmest June according to ERA5 Our climate system is continuing to accumulate heat .

El Niño continues to grow, with sea surface temperatures clearly at record high levels for the time of year... 📈 Sign up for our next monthly briefing to learn more, including Q/A: climatecentral-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi.... We'll also have an update on 2026's U.S. billion-dollar disasters so far.

🥵 Europe has been affected by a terrible heatwave, with impacts across the continent & record-breaking temperatures in many countries. The @ipcc.bsky.social #AR6 conclusions show that that heat extremes have become more intense & more frequent across the world due to human-induced climate change.

What is the future of summers in England? Our choices matter. A high-emissions future will commit our children and grandchildren to live in a world where the summers of 1976 & 2025 are cold. A global net-zero emissions future means that we can stabilise the climate & those summers will be normal.

People will die this week. The next few days will bring record-breaking heat to France, a country ill-prepared for widespread temperatures over 40 °C (104 °F). For the French: stay hydrated, stay in the shade, exercise due caution, and seek help if you need it.

ECMWF weekly mean temperature anomaly shows the highest category (>10°C above normal) over France this week. Typically, these colors appear only during winter warm spells, when temperature variability is the largest. Seeing them in mid-summer says a lot about the intensity of this heatwave.

A 40°C in the forecast for Reading now on Wednesday. Still rather uncertain on the exact magnitude, but 3 consecutive days breaking the previous all-time record for Reading (37.6°C) is possible.

MetJam@metjam.co.uk · 2mo ago

This is what the Met Office app forecast for Reading looks like in terms of where it sits in the climatological record, and it's safe to say it obliterates anything seen before it - do believe it's a bit too enthusiastic with its temperatures but still astounding.

The emergency events database, EM-DAT, must be preserved as a global public good Our new commentary in the Int. Journal of Public Health with N. Speybroeck, I. Noy, A. Kettner, R. Below, G. Messori, V. Wathelet, @ajezeq.bsky.social, D. Delforge, D. van Niekerk www.ssph-journal.org/journals/int...

SSPH+ | The emergency events database, EM-DAT, must be preserved as a global public good

More broadly, planetary health has emerged as an important perspective in public health, reflecting growing concern about the health impacts of climate and e...

ssph-journal.org

With June runs in for all the ENSO models and the "spring predictability barrier" mostly behind us, the odds of a record-breaking El Niño event this fall have continued to increase. Here are all the latest runs (including today's C3S updates):

I just want to point out that temperatures over land (where we all live) have warmed over twice as fast as ocean surface temperatures. The latest update through 2025 is... not great 🥴 Graphic created by www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temp...

The Amazon rainforest could be at a tipping point go.nature.com/4dVqWvY

Robust projections of risks to the Amazon rainforest

Amazonian deforestation is altering atmospheric moisture transport; as a result, even low levels of global warming could trigger dieback of most of the remaining forest.

go.nature.com

Hard to believe I’m even writing this. Meteorological summer hasn’t even begun, yet Paris, France has already logged more days above 32°C than its annual average.

JUST DROPPED: For years I thought industrial electrification potential was limited. How wrong I was. Engineering studies point to 90%+. Long term scenarios support this. Technology is much further ahead than we think. Question is whether policy keeps up. janrosenow.substack.com/p/industry-f...

Industry: from hard-to-abate to ready-to-electrify

How far can industry run on electricity?Much ffurther and faster than the 'hard-to-abate' label suggests.

janrosenow.substack.com

In response to recent misinformation about the use of scenarios in IPCC reports: the IPCC does not conduct its own research, run models or make measurements. The IPCC’s role is to assess the available scientific, peer-reviewed literature relevant to climate change: www.ipcc.ch/2026/05/20/i...

Burning fossil fuels has made this heatwave hotter. True for the UK today, and everywhere else, all of the time.

The paper describing the ISIMIP3b simulation protocol and climate-related forcings from CMIP6 is now available in @egu.eu GMD. Encyclopedic reference work led by Katja Frieler and the ISIMIP core team @pik-potsdam.bsky.social. What an effort! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...

Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)

Abstract. This paper describes the climate-related forcings (CRFs), i.e. change in climate comprising the atmosphere and the ocean, coastal water levels, and atmospheric composition (CO2 and methane c...

gmd.copernicus.org

Every year now, the pre-monsoon heat (the hottest time of year in South Asia with temperatures well over 40°C) starts earlier & lasts longer - due to human-induced climate change - exposing 1billion people to deadly heat. @wwattribution.bsky.social www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...

Rainfall intensity matters as much as how much rain falls. New in Nature: Corey Lesk and I show that daily-scale concentration of precipitation dries the land over the long-run, an effect as strong as total precipitation is climatological wetting. Paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage - Nature

Concentration of precipitation in large events decreases land water availability, and this effect will further increase with a future warming climate.

nature.com

The electricity-to-gas price ratio is the biggest barrier to electrifying European homes. Heat pumps deliver ~3 units of heat per unit of electricity. The maths works in Sweden but not everywhere. Much of gap is policy. More analysis in my forthcoming Substack newsletter janrosenow.substack.com

Hi everyone, in the course of NorESM development for CMIP7 - we've had need to do some rapid benchmarking and diagnostics. To this end, I've made a couple of tools which might be useful for the wider community - python ports of ncview and CMAT. /thread/

At #EGU2026, presenting the paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41... We had advanced two frontiers of Extreme Event Attribution (EEA): - Attribution studies focus on few events, we covered all reported heatwaves. - Source attribution for EEA meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/EGU26-...

Breaking: New study using observational constraints projects that the Atlantic Ocean circulation #AMOC will weaken ~50% by 2100, even for medium emissions and without Greenland melting. 🌊 More realistic models means stronger weakening - not entirely unexpected. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

If you use the R package DLNM to estimate excess risk attributable to environmental conditions (e.g., heat/cold), I've rewritten the package in python: github.com/aedessler/py...

GitHub - aedessler/pydlnm: python version of R package DLNM from Gaspirrini et al. (https://github.com/gasparrini/dlnm)

python version of R package DLNM from Gaspirrini et al. (https://github.com/gasparrini/dlnm) - aedessler/pydlnm

github.com

For the first time ever, heat pumps outsold gas boilers in Germany in 2025. 48% of all new heating systems installed last year were heat pumps. Gas fell to just 39%. A decade ago, heat pumps had a 7% market share. The transformation has been remarkable.

So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP. The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/ gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)

Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation...

gmd.copernicus.org

Ecuador could have prevented the massive impacts from hydropower drought it suffered in 2024 if it had gone all-in on wind-solar. Doing these investments now will prevent such damages from happening again in the near-future Check out our latest paper led by Sebastian Sterl in @natwater.nature.com 🧵