Tim Gushue
@1t0.bsky.social
Data Scientist Mastodon: ito@econtwitter.net Twitter (previously): @ito
The U.S. is the world’s richest large country. We rank high on GDP per person, and typical U.S. HH has the 2nd highest income in world But people w/ low incomes don’t share in that prosperity—their incomes are as low or lower than people in countries less wealthy than us.
📝 New article on Our World in Data: When do people experience mental health conditions for the first time? Mental health conditions can begin at almost any age. For many people, they develop in the early stages of life.
Nepal passed 5% battery electric vehicle share in August 2021 and is at 75%. The U.S. passed 5% in October 2022 and is at 6%.
“This is what crowd out looks like.” - Jason Furman
I'm not sure who saw this coming, but so far nearly all the jobs created during the second Trump administration have gone to women.
Via John Arnold: 2008 was an oil crisis. 2026 is a refining crisis. 2008 (peak) Oil = $147 Diesel = $4.76 retail Gasoline = $4.16 retail Today Oil = $95 Diesel = $6.53 retail Gasoline = $4.52 retail #EconSky
‘When economists talk about “inflation,” they are referring to the rate at which prices go up. But to everyday Americans, what often matters more is the accumulation of inflation over time — how much prices have gone up over a period of years.’ www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
This neutral rate projection from Oxford Econ is very interesting...
Mortgage debt to household net worth — been thinking about charts like this lately:
“.. The share of US for-sale [housing] inventory cutting prices has now hit a year-to-date high of 40.2%. “.. Home sellers are now face to face with reality. The ones who want out this season need to reset prices to stimulate demand.” - Parcl Labs
“.. This was indeed unprecedented: 30-year Treasury yields have never been up this much on a Fed decision while two-year yields fell this much, based on data going back to August 1987." @ljkawa.bsky.social @dailychartbook.bsky.social
This explains the general appeal of California.
A reminder that we’re running $2 trillion deficits. Here it is in visual form: (via B of A)
Canada's real GDP remains essentially on the same trend line seen from Jan 2010 to Feb 2020, although it had appeared to be well below that line until the national accounts revisions that were done last year. #cdnecon
One of the strangest charts in the UK tax system More taxpayers are earning just under £100k than around £83k Why? Crossing £100k triggers a series of tax and benefit cliff edges. Many people respond rationally: reduce hours, reject promotions or boost pension contributions
The opportunity cost of fear is, however, starting to prove sizeable. Higher rates of inflation are eroding the value of the cash on deposit, leaving a large loss relative to the purchasing power had the savings been invested, chart #JPMorganAM
‘Policymakers might be happy that there was little pass-through from the energy shock on to core inflation, but they cannot afford to ignore the headline rate. Energy and food inflation are of primary importance to an increasingly stretched consumer backdrop.’ www.ft.com/content/2050...
And by international standards, tax on low and average wages in the UK is really low.
Coffee plunges to its lowest price since 2024 ☕️📉 Congrats everyone, we did it 🥳🫂
With rising inflation and interest rates, more Americans are defaulting on their mortgages. For the poorest communities, the rate has increased nearly sixfold. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart.
I first put out this chart on March 19 when markets were in full panic mode. The point was that the Persian Gulf operating at half capacity implied a rise in prices of 60-80 percent. We're at 60 percent now, so there can be some rise, but not new highs... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-latest...
When I was but a wee lad, Finland never saw an 84 degree day. I never experienced one until I was 14. I did not like it one bit. Unnatural Southern nonsense.
Important milestone today - inflation-adjusted Personal Income for households is now lower, year-over-year, than it was last April. Households have 0.4% less income now. It's starker for my estimate of bottom 50% households - 1.6% less income.
