Ainsw0rth

@ainsw0rth.bsky.social

Clinical psychologist in the Rust Belt.

What's your "He actually broke his toe here" thing? The factoid you can't help but share whenever it comes up. For me, it's how the punk on the bus in Star Trek IV actually wrote and recorded the song that he's playing because he was annoyed the original song they had didn't sound punk at all.

This analysis is excellent, with some interesting data points for the sharp-eyed DC fan. Chatted with Nate a bit. Seems pretty clear that DC has been working on corners as the season goes on. Also pretty clear that Barlett is consistently dangerous, if we can get him better service.

Nate Krackeler@njk30.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Check this out if you love corners, the MLS, or just want to learn something. I put some real blood, sweat, and tears into this one. scnate3.substack.com/p/i-analyzed...

change in societal norms from "a 14 year old is capable of watching 3 kids for an evening" to "a 14 year old can't be trusted to be in public unchaperoned"

So many studies over years have proven again and again: People generally do not want to commit crimes! People are *driven* to crimes when legitimate pathways/lifestyles are made impossible/unsustainable. Give people the ability to live and do things legally, and they do!

Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 3mo ago

This paper shows that immigration enforcement can _increase_ crime. Undocumented immigrants already have the lowest crime rate, but tough-on-immigration policy makes immigrants less likely to report crime. So immigration enforcement worsens the problem it was ostensibly meant to solve

Community Engagement and Public Safety: Evidence from
Crime Enforcement Targeting Immigrantst
By FELIPE GONÇALVES, ELISA JÁCOME, AND EMILY WEISBURST*
We study the role of victim reporting in the production of public safety.
We examine the Secure Communities program, a crime-reduction policy that involved police in detecting unauthorized immigrants and increased deportation fears in immigrant communities. We find that the policy reduced the likelihood that Hispanic victims report crimes to police and increased offending against Hispanics. The number of reported crimes is unchanged, masking these opposing effects. We show that reduced reporting drives the offending increase and provide the first elasticity of offending to victim reporting in the liter-ature, calculating that a 10 percent decline in reporting increases offending by 7.9 percent. (JEL J15, K37, K42)

yep. modern fascism is in a lot of ways an attempt to fulfill the fantasy of adulthood without responsibility. to act with the impunity you imagine adults have!

The fact that Nature allowed this piece to be published like this suggests institutional capture, much as what happened at the BMJ. That's what the anti-trans side does, capture institutions to silence research into GAC while publishing hackery designed to attack it.

You cannot simultaneously argue the laws were too inactive to matter AND that people talking about the laws is what actually caused the harm. That's an ideological claim designed to shift blame from legislation to advocates by citing other SEGM authors to launder the blame.

So much false equivalence in media on gerrymandering in Texas vs California & Virginia. California and Virginia maps approved by the voters. That's a huge difference not enough people pointing out

My hottest “I have no data to back this up” take is that phones aren’t making young people less happy. What’s making them less happy is living in a world where everyone is having their reality defined by recommendation algorithms that can only care about whether something keeps you watching.

Young adult happiness is falling. Percent of young people who are pretty or very happy has dropped from 88% to 76% over the last 15 years after having held fairly steady between 1980 and 2010

This means that the right wing basically has a way of submitting unsworn, unvetted amicus briefs directly to a member of SCOTUS, unlimited in quantity and content. How—sincerely—can you regulate that sort of vector for propaganda? Alito is cooked, obv, but I mean more generally.

ElieNYC@elienyc.bsky.social · 8mo ago

And while I know that sounds like crazy pants bullshit to come up at a Supreme Court hearing... remeber that Alito watches Fox News all the time and is NO DIFFERENT than your racist uncle who does the same.