The problem is that as we're seeing with the Strait of Hormuz, "the USA forfeits its global ambitions" does not lead to a new age of peace and sunshine, but to global recession and instability. The Strait of Hormuz is not the only load-bearing instance of US power backstopping modern economies.

@tupolev22m.bsky.social · 1h ago

I think the traditional answer is actually "forfeit your global ambitions because you can't afford them and voters won't make the sacrifices necessary to restore them," unfortunately

I know it sucks, but Dems have got to be prepared to inherit a munitions-and-readiness hole that is going to be expensive to fill, but which will need to be filled. Hardly the only such hole, but it will be a big one.

Secretary of Defense Rock@sodrock.bsky.social · 2h ago

Who knew ridiculously long deployments and demanding op tempos run a ship and crew into the ground!

So the proposed Iran-Oman deal on the strait is a pretty unambiguous defeat for the USA if it goes through, since it would represent a formalization of Iran's de facto control of the strait and presumably create the conditions for Iran to extract goodness-only-knows how much money from the GCC.

As someone who in theory somehow makes a living in it, the internet economy is very strange. I think an important gap is between reader/viewer/fan supported and brand supported efforts (arguably one might term the former 'content creators' and the latter 'influencers' but I hate both labels).

Josh Gondelman@joshgondelman.bsky.social · 5h ago

This is such an great feature (Rebecca is great!), and I've been thinking about it for a few days. IMO, "Influencer" in the ten-years-ago sense was really a LOT of jobs (spokesmodel/copywriter/etc.) but now it's morphing, at least in part, into "intentionally annoying person" which feels worse.

Isn't lovely how little has changed?! Notice in the bottom right corner the makeup "compact" with six pigments and a protective lid! Above it the funny thing like a thumb is the pestle of a mortar for grinding fine powders. BM 1861,0523.2

This is the way.

"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux@bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 15h ago

I think the best thing about federalism is that I don't actually have to care very much about a senate primary in another state. I hope Michiganders get someone they like, I don't need to have an opinion! Meanwhile, here in NC, @roycoopernc.bsky.social looks to be in a very strong position.

I think the best thing about federalism is that I don't actually have to care very much about a senate primary in another state. I hope Michiganders get someone they like, I don't need to have an opinion! Meanwhile, here in NC, @roycoopernc.bsky.social looks to be in a very strong position.

I think Washington's feint at Staten Island in 1781 before almost dead-sprinting down to Yorktown while Henry Clinton doesn't figure out Washington is gone in Sept 2, by which point Washington was in Philadelphia and Cornwallis was probably already well-caught short of naval rescue.

The Amazing Prizzini@amazingprizzini.bsky.social · 15h ago

What is your favorite historical trick in war?

When I think of Homer, I think of the Homer statue at the University of Virginia—and the fact that for over 25 years, Ted Lendon has been making students (including me, once) learn how to march in a phalanx on the lawn. ⚔️

I know it’s so pedantic, but I hate it when people throw toga parties and then wear a Greek chiton off Amazon with, like, a gold meander pattern. That’s why I always teach my students how to tie a proper bedsheet toga—because Rome.

Think I've about hit the end of a run through X4: Foundations and I'm struck by two things: 1) there needs to be a genre descriptor grouping X4 and Bannerlord because they speak to similar fantasies and 2) the first person perspective makes for some remarkable screenshots.

As an aside, this is also how you know the United States is still a democracy. Autocracies hoard the treasure but spend blood freely. When Trump thinks he can spend a few divisions to salve his ego as Putin has, instead of just some missiles, you will know the republic died some time ago.

Pye Wacket@jackindabox22.bsky.social · yesterday

The desire to spend treasure over blood has been a hallmark of US military policy since WW2. Certainly this admin is particularly cowardly and hates losses moreso than any other, but the treasure over blood impulse plays to US strengths anyway.

You know, I should resent the new UNC system syllabus policy because it is basically there as an intrusion into academic freedom, to provide bad-faith ammunition against 'woke' professors... ...but I actually resent it because it means I have to submit my syllabi early and so my summer ends early.

...this is such a hilarious send up of all of the baroque stratagems and tricks that show up in ancient military literature (thinking both Mediterranean and China), I love it.

Brian O'Connor@johnnybesad.bsky.social · yesterday

youtu.be/7_ktnQAC3TQ?...

Ok, I haven't been remotely keeping up with House of the Dragon, but I just saw a scene clip that not only includes a spiked-ball-and-chain flail (not a completely fake weapon, but a very rare one), but also a company-sized unit successfully 'playing dead' while being walked over for an ambush.

Absolutely the case that interceptor stocks are dangerously low, but strike munitions (Tomahawks, JASSM, etc) stocks are much deeper and behind that when air defense is shut down is, as I understand it, functionally infinite supply of JDAMs.

@qm61.bsky.social · 2d ago

Are you sure about the statement that the US has a “LOT” of conventional weapons available ? Greater than 60% of Patriots and THAAD have been used. A conventional assault would initiate retaliation that the US cannot negate, and conventional assault weapons are significantly depleted.

This is exactly right. This fact is the core of the 'Iranian overplay / mutual ruin' scenario: Iran can't actually do a lot of damage to the USA, but it can burn the GCC. So the scenario the matters is Trump decides 'not our bacon in the fire' and lets the region burn instead of taking the L.

Sharon 🪳🌹@sharonk.bsky.social · 2d ago

right, but it would primarily be GCC states facing the blowback

Remarkable the degree to which the IRGC is just not going to let Trump walk away with anything he can call a win. I scoffed a little bit when some security experts said that basically 'humiliation of enemies' was an Iranian regime pattern in terms of aims, but that doesn't seem far off.

Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social · 2d ago

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) carried out an attack on a US base in Kuwait using three drones, according to a source familiar with the matter.-i24 News

It isn't the most significant event, perhaps, but I find Fletcher's decision to calmly pass command of the battle to Spruance after Yorktown was crippled at Midway one of those tests of character a great many commanders fail, which he passed.

Reconstructionist@unavaleable.bsky.social · 2d ago

here's a hot take for US carrier commanders in WW2 Spruance > Fletcher > Halsey

Gaming thought of the day: a lot of games, because they're unwilling to impose much friction, miss out on the dramatic possibilities of weather. I was playing AC: Black Flag Resync'd and the new dynamic weather feels a bit wasted because storms don't really matter very much.

My backlog of games watching me fill a cart during a Steam sale

Honestly, filtering for, "the Nazis were bad, Stalin was bad, the correct side won WWII" is the easiest way to filter out 90+% of bad faith interlocutors if only everyone was honest about their views but the fascists and tankies know this and so sometimes falsify their opinions strategically.

Secretary of Defense Rock@sodrock.bsky.social · 2d ago

WWII propaganda is good actually

WWII propaganda is good actually

Don Moynihan@donmoyn.bsky.social · last wk.

"Debates over World War II became popular at Heritage, with a lot of “rehashing and going through who was the bad guy and who were the good guys,”" Also, sounds like a lot of anti-Semitism at the Heritage Foundation. Maybe Trump's task force on anti-Semitism could look into this!

I need to start planning in a nap after recording a podcast. For whatever reason, whenever I do a spot on one, I end up rather tired and kind of useless afterwards. I would not think talking to a camera would be so tiring, and yet.

Amusing that he puts "Oman" in quotes like he isn't quite sure if it is a real place, or a fake place Iran made up to stall negotiations.

Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social · 2d ago

Fool me once……

It can only good happen, oil -5%.

Leah McElrath@leahmcelrath.bsky.social · 2d ago

⚠️ Reuters: Iran says NO talks are underway or planned, contradicting Trump’s claims.

It seems relevant that the thing Isaiah is being sent to do in that passage is to deliver a prophecy of doom to his own people for having fallen away from the path of righteousness. So if these guys were like, Isaiah, that would be robustly bad news for...the United States.

Matt Thiessen@mattthiessen.bsky.social · 3d ago

American Christianity in one social media post.

Sure, I bet. Anyway, spin the wheel to find out who Donald "Betrayer-MacGee" Trump will betray this week? Is it you? Is it a close political ally? Is it Denmark? Is it his country? Is it you? Is it his Iranian interlocutors? Is it Bibi? Is it you? Round and round it goes.

Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social · 3d ago

Israel expected a broad U.S. strike on Iran targeting key regime vulnerabilities, including energy infrastructure. Despite disappointment when the attack didn’t materialize, Israeli officials say Washington hasn’t closed the door. A major American operation against Iran remains a live option.

I can help. Non Americans have no idea he's insane. The ones who are against him believe he's sane and choosing to harm them for reasons they can't figure out, the ones who are for him believe he's sane and choosing to help them. Both are stunned every time whenever he changes

Maybe someone has this easier to hand: I'm trying to find an instance where @mercoglianos.bsky.social makes his point that the administration should have been prepared to stop-gap shipping insurance earlier in the Iran war - it's a critique sprinkled in his videos, but I can't find an example.