You and whose economy? Group-based retrospection in economic voting by Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard is now available in Early View. @chdausgaard.bsky.social ajps.org/2026/03/20/y...

What about them? 💭 Rune Stubager, @chdausgaard.bsky.social, @lenamariahuber.bsky.social & Michael Lewis-Beck use survey data from Austria, Denmark & the U.S. to find out whether group sympathies matter as much as social identity when influencing #VoterBehaviour

Reference groups and electoral behavior | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core

Reference groups and electoral behavior

buff.ly

After 8️⃣ years as Social Media Editor of @wepsocial.bsky.social I am very happy to announce that @chdausgaard.bsky.social takes over from 1 January 2026 on. 🥳 It was a great pleasure to be part of @wepsocial.bsky.social journey & I thank the editors for the trust they have placed in me. 😊

Excited to be presenting my and Frederik's paper on elite rhetoric and group-party linkages in a few hours at the TaDa Spring Speaker Series! Tune in at the link below.

Clint Claessen@clint0475.bsky.social · last yr.

Next week, the TaDa Speaker Series is thrilled to host @chdausgaard.bsky.social from the University of Copenhagen presenting new work with @fghjorth.bsky.social on Elite Rhetoric and the Running Tally of Party-Group Linkages. 📅 April 16, 2025 | 🕔 17:00 Berlin Time 🔗 Subscribe: tada.cool

Next week, the TaDa Speaker Series is thrilled to host @chdausgaard.bsky.social from the University of Copenhagen presenting new work with @fghjorth.bsky.social on Elite Rhetoric and the Running Tally of Party-Group Linkages. 📅 April 16, 2025 | 🕔 17:00 Berlin Time 🔗 Subscribe: tada.cool

🚨 New piece in TIME: AI progress hasn't stalled — it's just become invisible to most people. 🚨 I used to think that AI slowed down a lot in 2024, but I now think I was wrong. Instead, there's a widening gap between AI's public face and its true capabilities. 🧵

In a new working paper, @fghjorth.bsky.social and I show that party elites have significant power to shape group linkages through their rhetoric, suggesting that such linkages are more dynamic and elite-driven than suggested by predominant structural accounts. 🧵

It is super tough to cut down about 40% of 482 submissions for the EPSA behavior section. But I've finished the first evaluations. Some thoughts, if you are interested:

I also haven't heard of Zizek. Or Hegel.

The Best Time I Pretended I Hadn’t Heard of Slavoj Žižek

One weird trick to frustrate the hell out of a Marxist bro

medium.com

Remember best practice in a power analysis is to plan not for the effect you expect, but for the smallest effect size of interest. The type 2 error is a conditional inference: If there is an effect I care about, I would have X probability to detect it. lakens.github.io/statistical_...

In causal inference there are row people: "I care about effects, defined in terms of cases, and consider their potential outcomes" (population 🎯, mechanism 🤷🏻) and column people: "I care about mechanisms, which relate variables, and how they behave under interventions" (mechanism 🎯, population 🤷🏻)

Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛@rmcelreath.bsky.social · 3y ago

I'm giving a new talk on Wednesday. Prep is going well so far

Great to see this out!

We've made a major update to the causal diagrams chapter of Causal Inference in R! Check it out to learn about DAGs! I think there's a lot in this chapter that is undercovered in other sources. #rstats #causalinference @lucystats.bsky.social @travisgerke.bsky.social www.r-causal.org/chapters/05-...

Over the course of my ERC project we collected panel surveys in BE, DE, ES, GR, IRE and PT in 2019-2021 on pol behaviour including voting in national and EP elections. Recently, those data have been deposited and are available here. dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/MA...

Special election results tonight were ambiguous, with Republicans overperforming partisan lean in 3 and Democrats overperforming in 4. Overall for the cycle, though, Dems are still overperforming bigly. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

🤔 Model = parsimonious representation of a DGP intended to be refined by learning from data Theory = parsimonious representation of a DGP without such empirical refinement intention, perhaps for normative analysis or to spell out plausible counterfactuals

New: Rs question the integrity of House races when their candidates lose at much higher rates than Ds, but candidate race and margin of loss have no measurable effect (w/@johncarey.bsky.social, B. Fogarty, @jasonreifler.bsky.social, and great Dartmouth students) sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/files/...

Everyone knows about retrospective (economic) voting. We asked who wins the votes that the incumbent loses. New parties? Established oppositions? Get one out of 50 copies of our @wepsocial.bsky.social article for free. www.tandfonline.com/eprint/GRD7C...

A 🧵 on Israeli strategy or lack thereof. Israel didn’t have a strategy for this war because Israel had no idea this war was coming. Netanyahu had a strategy: avoid war, weaken moderate Palestinians and contain Hamas. But it collapsed, leaving Israel confused and at war. 1/

Jason "Red5" Lyall@jaylyall.bsky.social · 3y ago

Between 38,200 and 44,500 buildings throughout the Gaza Strip (about 14% of all buildings in Gaza, and 25% of northern Gaza) have been damaged or destroyed since the war's beginning, new study finds. One of the most intense bombing campaigns of the 21st century by sorties/time & civilian casualties

Important stuff. Most conjoints force subjects to choose. This can distort results in unpredictable ways.

Jeff Ziegler@jeffreymziegler.bsky.social · 3y ago

New draft of paper w/ @davidryanmiller.com ! Quick summary: - Conjoints mimic political choices that people face - Possible problem: If people don’t approve of choices, they may abstain - Findings: This matters!!! - Big update: New ex w/ tied & different attribute prioritisation Link: osf.io/4ws7m

POV: you posted a chart of median real [insert data here] on the internet in 2023

This poll of Muslims in Britain, which is now being widely reported, is complete garbage. It is a self-selection social media poll, no better than the Daily Express "reader polls" showing "98% support for Brexit" or similar: x.com/MuslimCensus...

BREAKING: The GOP has decided to nominate rainfall as the new House Speaker.

📣 New WP alert 📣 osf.io/jq28n “Policy makers believe money motivates more than it does” With Flo Keppeler, John Ternvoski, Dominik Vogel & Erez Yoeli /Thread 🧵

I don't know who needs to hear this, but if you are writing a paper where there are two theories Theory 1: X-->Y Theory 2: Z-->Y Then the regression model Y~ X + Z is probably not what you are looking for.

I didn’t post much on the last place. I’m not entirely sure I’ll do better here. But hello. Here is something I wrote this week: uninsurability is the first stage of uninhabitability.

The insurance world is flirting with its climate doom loop

Persistent extreme weather patterns demand appropriate pricing of risks and more emphasis on prevention

on.ft.com

There is increasing evidence that the world has warmed faster over the past 15 years than it has since the 1970s. Surface records, ocean heat content, and the Earth's energy imbalance all support an acceleration of warming, as I argue in today's @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/o...

The program of the Causal Data Science Meeting 2023 (Nov 7–8) is now available on our newly redesigned website. Check out the fantastic list of presentations and register for free under causalscience.org 🔊 Please share with your network!

Causal Data Science Meeting - Home

Fostering a dialogue between industry and academia on causal data science.

causalscience.org