Welcome news. Proud to have contributed through the CCRA4 climate framing and CCC advice on adaptation objectives. Now for delivery.

Climate Change Committee@thecccuk.bsky.social · last mo.

The government has announced it will be planning for a minimum of 2°C of warming by 2050 and committed to setting stronger, measurable objectives for climate adaptation. The need for action could not be more urgent. ⚠️ Read our full response: www.theccc.org.uk/2026/07/13/r...

🔥🥵🔥This summer the UK is experiencing unprecedented wildfires - many near urban areas. Following the heatwave of 2022 we showed climate change is leading to increasing fire weather in the UK. doi.org/10.1002/cli2... @hcbloomfield19.bsky.social @nathanaelmelia.bsky.social @climatedann.bsky.social

Detecting Rising Wildfire Risks for South East England

In July 2022 southeast England experienced a record breaking heatwave and unprecedented wildfires in urban areas. We investigate fire weather trends since 1960 in southeast England using a large ense...

doi.org

🧵 With another UK heatwave in progress it's hard to show what future heatwaves will look like using maximum temperatures alone - so here's daily maximum temperatures across a whole UK summer, side by side: 2022, the summer with the first 40°C day vs UKCP18 projections at 1.5°C of warming. 1/

Heat waves today are already stretching us past our limits — and most people have no idea how much worse the next couple of decades will get. We're not prepared for what's coming. We urgently need better ways to communicate the scale of this risk.

Today has been another record breaking day, with a new provisional June temperature record of 37.3°C recorded at Santon Downham this afternoon

With UK heat extremes only getting worse, I'd bet most people get air conditioning long before they get a heat pump. There's a real opportunity to tackle heating and cooling together — but it needs the right incentives, skills, and workforce to deliver it.

We told you these heatwaves were coming but ghg emssions not yet going down (Stott et al, Nature , 2004 showing 2003 heat as regular occurrence). We're now saying West Antarctic ice sheet in imminent peril and huge irreversible sea level rise would result: would be good idea to listen this time.

This week marks my last at the Climate Change Committee, closing out 3.5 brilliant years. Proud to have led the climate science behind CCRA4 and the Well-Adapted UK report — work that will help shape how the UK adapts to a changing climate for years to come. Grateful for a brilliant team. 🌍

The Met Office has issued a Red Extreme Heat Warning for Wednesday and Thursday, with June’s all-time daily record temperature forecast to be broken. Find out more in our latest news release 👇

Red Extreme Heat Warning issued with June temperature records forecast to break

The Met Office has issued a Red Extreme Heat Warning for Wednesday and Thursday, with June’s all-time daily record temperature forecast to be broken.

metoffice.gov.uk

An exceptional heatwave is developing this week with record-breaking June temperatures highly likely, particularly for England and Wales 🌡️ Following the heat in May 2026, it would be the first time since 1911 that two consecutive months have observed record temperatures

⚠️⚠️🔴 Red weather warning issued 🔴⚠️⚠️ Extreme heat across parts of central/southern England and Wales Wednesday 0900 - Thursday 2100 Latest info 👉 bit.ly/WxWarning Stay #WeatherAware ⚠️

Successive record-breaking European heatwaves in the same summer - as we are experiencing now - are exactly what @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social shows could happen: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

There is, in real world climate system, more than one path to get to a "high warming scenario." Thankfully, it doesn't look like we're going to take anything close to an RCP8.5 *emissions* trajectory. But that does not mean we're safe from an RCP8.5-like level of warming. Why?

Today has been the hottest day in May on record with Kew Gardens provisionally reaching 34.8°C - exceeding the previous highest May temperature in the UK by a full 2 degrees Celsius🌡️ This heat would be exceptional in the UK even in mid summer, let alone in May📈

“Built for a climate that no longer exists” is a good phrase www.theguardian.com/environment/...

UK ‘built for climate that no longer exists’ and needs urgent changes to survive global heating, report warns

Landmark report calls for widespread air conditioning and says UK temperatures forecast to exceed 40C by 2050

theguardian.com

We have a new preprint on this, led by my former postdoc David Lafferty (now at Verisk) and with a great set of co-authors including @climateflavors.bsky.social. We use a "meta-ensemble" of downscaled climate products to partition temperature and precipitation projection uncertainty across CONUS.

Chris Parker@chrisjparker.bsky.social · 3mo ago

First: climate models are routinely averaged across many models to give a cleaner message. But from a risk perspective, that can be deeply misleading. The spread of modelled outcomes — especially at regional scales and for extremes — often matters far more than the scenario you chose. 3/6

But this reinforces the point @chrisjparker.bsky.social was making: sampling a sufficiently wide range of variability is most important for risk analysis.

Chris Parker@chrisjparker.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Put it together and the conclusion is hard to ignore: we may be systematically underestimating risk — not because we picked the wrong scenario, but because we're not exploring the full plausible range of futures. More in my LinkedIn post 👇 www.linkedin.com/posts/chris-... 5/6

🧵 There's been a lot of noise about the 'dropping' of RCP8.5 and what that means for worst-case climate outcomes. But this debate is largely missing the point. 1/6 #ClimateScience #ClimateRisk #Adaptation #ClimateModels

So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP. The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/ gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)

Abstract. Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation...

gmd.copernicus.org

Earth is warming as ther's more energy arriving than leaving driven by rising greenhouse gases & this imbalance is growing rather than shrinking as needed to limit #climate change. Our recent contributions to this in @ioppublishing.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1088/1748... doi.org/10.1088/1748...

Reconciling Earth’s growing energy imbalance with ocean warming

Reconciling Earth’s growing energy imbalance with ocean warming, Allan, Richard P, Merchant, Christopher J

doi.org

World Meteorological Organization@wmo-global.bsky.social · 5mo ago

The Earth’s energy imbalance has reached a new high. In a stable climate, incoming energy from the sun is about the same as the amount of outgoing energy. But increasing greenhouse gas concentrations have upset the equilibrium. 🆕 #StateOfClimate 2025: bit.ly/StateOfClima... #WorldMetDay

Extreme global climate outcomes are possible even at 2°C of warming In our new Nature study led by @bevacquae.bsky.social with Jakob Zscheischler and @janasillmann.bsky.social, we show that even moderate warming of 2°C could lead to extreme outcomes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - Nature

Extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming and may turn out to be more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming.

nature.com

Join us at the #EMS26, the European Meteorological Society meeting this September in Utrecht for our session on high-impact extremes! 📍 UP3.7. High-impact climate extremes: physical understanding, storylines, impacts and projections lnkd.in/efWVVCYX Abstract submission deadline is 27th of March.

Some dates for your diary - our next statutory publications 📅 A huge amount of analysis has gone into these and we look forward to sharing them with you soon.

Most 2025 global temperatures are now out (degrees C above 1850-1900 baseline) 1.41 HadCRUT5 1.44 Berkeley 1.46 JRA-3Q 1.47 Copernicus 1.53 DCENT-I NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC.

While the world sometimes seems metaphorically on fire right now, global warming is still progressing as well. In 2025, global warming delivered the 3rd warmest year since measurements began. A modest step down from 2024's records, but still well above 20th century norms. 🧪🧵

@ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org and @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org do you have any plans to update the supporting datases for 2025 from this excellent analysis? interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...

Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world - Carbon Brief

Attribution studies calculate whether, and by how much, climate change affected the intensity, frequency or impact of extremes – Carbon Brief has mapped every published study on how climate change has...

interactive.carbonbrief.org

Incredible opportunity to undertake vital research on UK drought projections with an amazing supervisory team!

Selma Guerreiro@selmaguerreiro.bsky.social · 10mo ago

🔥 #PhD Opportunity! Shape how we adapt to future droughts driven by climate change. Funded studentship, Jan 2026 start. Apply now! Please share with anyone who is driven to make a difference in #WaterResources, #WaterSecurity and #ClimateChangeAdaptation! Details and how to apply:

It's good news that the Government are taking the impacts of climate change seriously and have sought our advice to strengthen adaptation objectives. Read the letter published today from Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee, to Emma Hardy MP 👇 www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...

Letter: CCC letter to Minister Hardy - advice on the UK's adaptation objectives - Climate Change Committee

theccc.org.uk

The people I work with are not stupid people and our climate predictions of 30 years ago of global warming have proved to be accurate. Just saying. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...

Hey Bluesky hivemind, climate modelling data question. Does anyone know where I could find CESM2 and MPI large ensemble annual global mean surface temperature timeseries?