If you are seeing this message, shut down your computer IMMEDIATELY.

Hello, El Niño. A lot of sifting through model forecasts here. I explain caveats of long-range model predictions (there are big limitations along the CA coast), but the strong consensus amongst American, Canadian and European models gives merit to predictions of a very wet California winter.

Powerful El Niño puts California in the bull’s-eye for soaking winter, models show

Within the United States, only California, Florida and the Mid-Atlantic have such a strong signal for unusually wet weather.

sfchronicle.com

Marcelly belly

Fuck it, Halloween starts right now and runs through February 15th. You're welcome.

Should I (a) go see Spider-Man this afternoon, (b) play videogames, (c) ???

(She did live another ten years, but no more than that. She was insanely lucky. Get your fucking routine colonoscopy.)

Sweet bleeding Mithras, almost everything is SO MUCH BETTER than it was 40 years ago. Air travel I grant you (with the exception of SMOKING ON PLANES). But medical technology? The availability of so many foods? Air pollution? It's just so much better now.

Constantine@ajaxsinger.bsky.social · 22h ago

Food, man. Food is so much better than it was in 1986. All of it. Poor-people food, restaurant food, fresh food, frozen food. Food is just a hell of a lot better.

It’s amazing that there’s any confusion whatsoever about why so many straight women have zero interest in dating straight men nowadays

Faine Greenwood@faineg.bsky.social · yesterday

Surely someone has studied our modern epidemic of conservative men with unwashed asses.

lol thank you associated press for your service for publishing 2% of vote counts

If You Don’t Snooze, You Lose!!!

WHAT THE HELL I JUST WOKE UP IN HERE

Seanan McGuire@seananmcguire.bsky.social · yesterday

cornfeld perfec t size for put @scalzi.com in to n\ap! inside very Soft and Comfort Scalzi sleep soundly put Scalzi in Cornfield. Put Scalzi In Cornfield.

Let's say I wanted to play Red Dead Redemption 2 but don't want to be railroaded into following around a loser dumbass grifter. What should I play instead?

That said, let us take a moment to thank our Bluesky Trans and Furry Elders for freaking out Jack Dorsey so much he bolted and left us this nice social media playground, taking most of his crypto chuds with him. We thank you for your service.

After a few months of mostly sticking to banal news updates, the Alt National Park Service is going back to their conspiracy LARPer roots.

I know this would be closing the barn door after he horse has been reelected president, but if Democrats win both chambers I'd really like to see a concurrent resolution deeming January 6 an insurrection under 14(3). 1/

I do appreciate that learning the history of the role of the AAU during the Red Scares (that's what the link at the top of this thread comes from) prepared me for the day they would offer higher ed up for political repression on a silver platter

Credit to Liam an exceptional reporter! bsky.app/profile/liam...

Liam Knox@liamknox.bsky.social · 2d ago

Scoop: The Trump administration is sending a letter to college presidents asking them to pledge a series of policy changes by the end of the year. Unlike last year's Compact, this effort was devised with input from higher ed leaders. Free link to my exclusive: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The OMB thing is huge, this is unarguably a Dem W. The rule they blocked was critical to the SAVE act. Part of the reason people think "feckless Dems can't do shit" is because wreckers post nonsense like this, framing clear wins as losses because they either don't know better, or have an agenda.

Murshed Zaheed@murshedz.bsky.social · 3d ago

Patty Murray and Chuck Schumer decide to strike a “bipartisan” deal with … checks notes … Susan Collins to fund the Trump regime through December which appears to not to any include any safeguards against Trump’s meddling with midterm elections.

“Yeah, all this. I’m not having it.”

Every Gender Studies major deserves an apology for every joke made at their expense. People studied STEM because everything was science and engineering. People studied CompSci because everything was computers. People studied Gender because as it turns out, everything actually is Gender.

Appropriate air quotes because the most infuriating part about Americans debating "lockdown" is that it simply never happened. Having to pick up your Applebees and eat it on the sectional does not count. There wasn't even a brief moment where "everything" was closed. That's not real.

Melissa Gira Grant@melissagiragrant.com · 3d ago

if you hated covid "lockdowns" try long covid

When it's time to peck some mfing wood. 🪶

If you know a manager who actually wants to prioritize reliable, accurate AI, tell them to check out our book Auditing AI. And if they refuse to test their systems, our book is a helpful guide to journalists, citizens, and public servants seeking accountability. auditingai.cc

Home - Auditing AI -- The Book

How tech companies, journalists, and policymakers can prevent AI decision-making from going wrong. How tech companies, journalists, and policymakers can

auditingai.cc

Hypervisible @hypervisible.blacksky.app · 3d ago

“The AI assistant, which Kinney Drugs named Burt, after its founder, was built by a third-party AI pharmaceutical company, Synerio. In the pharmacy’s terms, Kinney Drugs states that ‘Burt may not be accurate, complete or up-to-date and may be misleading or contain errors and omissions.’”

“Theory and Model Building in Psychology” New book edited by @fabianhutmacher.bsky.social and Alexander Wendt, with chapters by @ufeest.bsky.social, @devezer.bsky.social, @mieronen.bsky.social, and @bringmannlaura.bsky.social. link.springer.com/content/pdf/...

You can also take the tack of exposing the distraction: “You’re the head of HHS now. Do you have a plan for the next pandemic or are you just going to keep criticizing media coverage you didn’t like from six years ago?”

I wish OpenAI had spent a couple more prompts to clean up the writeup (I haven't had a chance to look at the other writeups so can't comment on their writing quality). Yes, there's a Lean proof. But that doesn't give me any understanding. That will just take time, I guess.

Normally, when I read a paper like this, I get immediately suspicious. What are they trying to hide by not explaining the new ideas up front and center?

It writes in a way that's characteristic of a lot of ChatGPT-generated proofs, in which it elaborates at length on "boilerplate" setup, but then nonchalantly introduces what I consider to be the technical crux of the result:

"Some harm reduction advocates are annoying" isn't a serious policy analysis or prescription. Everyone wants to get homeless people off the streets. Harm reduction advocates want to get them into shelters and treatment, which works. Their opponents want incarceration, which doesn't.