Look, I think AES is going to win. But I do buy that the Fox poll is an accurate depiction of where the race is at. I don’t want to undersell his background, but AES is just a public health guy from Wayne County going up against Rogers who ran in a high turnout election year, so results make sense

ElectionCord@electioncord.com · 12h ago

I think what Abdul has to focus on in the last 3 months or so, is "moderating". I put it in quotation marks because he doesn't have to actually change any of his positions per say, but he has to present himself as just a normal reasonable Democrat. That should be the main focus of all his messaging

And there is some evidence that early vote is looking Dem-friendly. bsky.app/profile/fano...

Sheldon Whitehouse Stan@fanofsheldon.bsky.social · 3d ago

As @corncobanalysis.bsky.social pointed out to me, there is an EV tracker for this with L2 and democrats have a pretty decent sized advantage

🚨SPECIAL ELECTION - PENNSYLVANIA STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 12🚨 Democrat: Brandon Dukes @dukeshq.bsky.social Election Date: 🗓️THIS TUESDAY, AUGUST 18TH🗓️ Area: N of Pittsburgh (Butler County) Note: Trump won this district by 19 points, which puts it in ‘Dem overperformance range’. This is flippable!

That poll is not good for AES, however consider this is the electorate of 2018 and that Trump's approvals are 10 points lower than 2018 in this poll and ask yourself if he will lose.

World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 14h ago

my only comment for Michigan is that Bernie should give Abdul the $22M in Bernie’s campaign account immediately. AOC should transfer funds as well.

Inspired by @electioncord.com here is my version of Illinois if congressional districts only required 100k residents. With a Chicagoland closeup

NEW: I talked about how in fact, spending on TV ads is quite important, and how despite it's been talked about before, Francesca Hong's campaign was the first big case of someone trying to spend nothing on TV. LINK: electioncord.com/spend-on-tv-...

By the way, inactive candidates are getting a combined 8.6% in the Wisconsin primary despite some of them dropping out during EV period. Janet Mills got 19.2%.....and another paper candidate got 8.1%. Definitely should've been a warning sign!

Magenta@magentab.bsky.social · 2d ago

we didn't recognize the signs of a protest vote since it was relatively early in the primary cycle, but with the context of michigan and wisconsin, they are kind of obvious

Idk if it's demographics, or ICE but it's probably a mix of both. MN-5 is very demographically similar to CO-01 where the incumbent, DeGette lost.

🏳️‍🌈🚲Cole🚄🚟@coleurbanist.bsky.social · 2d ago

Also @fanofsheldon.bsky.social keeps telling me that ICE might have just shaped the electorate across Minnesota. Which would not be surprising in the slightest

Trump's approvals on immigration being to the right of the overall is not a coincidence

MLC@chicyph80.bsky.social · 2d ago

There aren't many simple answers with that issue. It's going to require a lot of reforms for sure. But again, I'll caution, if people think it's as simple as "abolish ICE!"....

One last thing before I take a politics break but despite dropping out way earlier, more people voted for Sara Rodriguez than Mandela Barnes...... They really did not like Barnes

World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2d ago

At least 1,000 progressive voters were willing to vote DSA/Indivisible for Berge and then refused to vote Hong...insane

Geographic coalitions in primaries are fake now

🏳️‍🌈🚲Cole🚄🚟@coleurbanist.bsky.social · 2d ago

Oh and Hong loses while keeping it close in Milwaukee but also not dominating her home turf

FWIW I think this is the biggest L Trump has ever gotten in a primary since 2024

World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2d ago

Trump endorsing the MyPillow guy is not working either

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Pretty much the last chance for a Dem flip before the midterms is next week. Keep a VERY close eye on PA HD 12 👀

Sheldon Whitehouse Stan@fanofsheldon.bsky.social · 3d ago

As @corncobanalysis.bsky.social pointed out to me, there is an EV tracker for this with L2 and democrats have a pretty decent sized advantage

As @corncobanalysis.bsky.social pointed out to me, there is an EV tracker for this with L2 and democrats have a pretty decent sized advantage

World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2w ago

this district is left-trending, watch out on August 18!

Someone on Twitter pointed this put but if you look at votehub models with and without the betting markets they tell a very different story for Wisconsin governor

20 years ago I managed a campaign in NH. Local geniuses had decided the candidate had no chance of beating the local institution—we won by 7—so almost our entire staff was out-of-state We found them apartments or supporter housing Volunteers fed them We won We paid everyone for iirc 2 extra…/1

Adam Cohen (My Personal Views Only)@axidentaliberal.bsky.social · 3d ago

Even in my small law firm, all interns are paid. This was my wife’s idea-and she was right. So instead of using free labor and pocketing the money, we pay everyone at least minimum wage. Because each person has worth Never devalue yourself. Don’t work for employers who want to take advantage of you

Reminder that Hickenlooper lost Denver by almost 10 points and the rurals bailed him out

World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 3d ago

So, one thing I'm interested to see in tmrw's primaries is if buying ads in rural areas continues to be a hack to winning votes. Because Raja Krishnamoorthi did nothing in rural Illinois and still managed to win all of them bc he carpet-bombed the airwaves.

So, one thing I'm interested to see in tmrw's primaries is if buying ads in rural areas continues to be a hack to winning votes. Because Raja Krishnamoorthi did nothing in rural Illinois and still managed to win all of them bc he carpet-bombed the airwaves.

Seattle University is actually a Catholic school……Catholics love socialism?

World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 4d ago

Sawant actually outright won a bunch of precincts near Seattle University

This is so unserious

Clean Observer@hammbear2024.bsky.social · 5d ago

They should not be posting this shit.

Ok I’ve done a Washington primary analysis that I think does a few useful adjustments to allow a nice comparison over time. This looks at aggregate two party WA primary congressional vote and aggregate two party vote nationally in these elections with some slight adjustments.

We're going to start a new series, where we want your opinion about how you think the Senate will go! Each day, we're going to ask about a race, and you give us an answer, rating (Safe, Likely, Lean, Tilt R/D/I) or margin. We're going to compile up the results into a map at the end. First: Florida

I think with these primary results you come to the conclusion that it’s not clear who is going to win any of these states. Will a progressive or moderate win Michigan? Idk

Magenta@magentab.bsky.social · 5d ago

can i just say that the whole "progressive wave" was always somewhat overstated and a lot more of a regional case-by-case thing

Definitely a surprise for us, since the funding disparity was not that big. Nevertheless, case is going to win another term.

ElectionCord@electioncord.com · 5d ago

With 84% of Precincts reporting, Ed Case is up huge in HI01, he will almost certainly advance.

I’ve altered my prediction to a tilt Case loss, but should be close no matter what

ElectionCord@electioncord.com · 5d ago

Hawaii's primaries are tonight for some reason, and even if it will be late, there's one interesting primary: Hawaii's first Congressional District between moderate incumbent Ed Case and more progressive State senator Jarrett Keohokalole. Follow the election: electioncord.com/live-electio...

Hawaii's primaries are tonight for some reason, and even if it will be late, there's one interesting primary: Hawaii's first Congressional District between moderate incumbent Ed Case and more progressive State senator Jarrett Keohokalole. Follow the election: electioncord.com/live-electio...

Meanwhile over in WA-01 Dems are getting a combined 66.2 percent of the vote to Republican’s 26.4 percent (note an indie taking a large chunk of the remaining vote). In 2024 Dems got 63.1% to a combined 36.6 (including some clearly right leaning indies)

World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 7d ago

Washington primary looking very good right now in WA-03

Close to all the vote is counted in WA-03, so we can do a rough comparison with 2024. In 2024, MGP (who was contested) got 45.9%. The Rs got a total of 51.5% (there were two Rs running). This year? Dems are getting a combined 55.1% to 42.7. That is a 18 point swing!

World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · last wk.

Hold up, let them cook