⚕️ New research with @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social shows how the most effective public health interventions against #TB would be population-wide ones, like mass vaccination programmes and screenings Read the @lshtm.bsky.social story 🔽 www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/cen...
LSHTM TB Modelling Group
@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social
Updates from the TB Modelling Group, a multidisciplinary group of mathematical modellers, economists, and epidemiologists from LSHTM
New publication led by Mphatso Phiri: Drivers of sex differences in Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity among adolescents and adults in Blantyre, Malawi link.springer.com/article/10.1... @uofgshw.bsky.social @lightontb.bsky.social @kchorton.bsky.social #TB #Episky 🛟🧪
Drivers of sex differences in Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity among adolescents and adults in Blantyre, Malawi - BMC Global and Public Health
Background Sex differences in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) exposure likely contribute to sex differences in tuberculosis (TB) burden. However, population-level age- and sex-specific patterns of Mt...
link.springer.com
New preprint suggests that reported symptoms are not a reliable indicator of TB disease severity, and that the context in which someone is investigated for TB—self-presentation to a clinic vs active community screening—may be more informative 👇 medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.07.10.26357755v1
medrxiv.org
Our new paper in @nathealth.nature.com shows that population-level #TB interventions are likely to have more meaningful impact on disease burden than interventions that only reach routinely diagnosed individuals or their households. www.nature.com/articles/s44... 1/7
Global impact and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis interventions - Nature Health
A modelling analysis at a global scale estimates that three interventions (vaccination, community-wide screening and prison screening programmes) could prevent more than 10% of tuberculosis cases betw...
nature.com
New preprint suggests that combining clinic and community-based approaches is key to maximising the cost-effectiveness of #tuberculosis active case finding in South Africa 🇿🇦 Read more 👉 www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Projected population level impact and cost-effectiveness of clinic and community-based tuberculosis screening approaches
The South Africa National Department of Health have set ambitious targets to scale up TB testing, focusing primarily on clinic attendees. In the context of declining funding for TB care and prevention...
medrxiv.org
New publication now out in @lancetgh.bsky.social! New #TB #vaccines are being trialled in older adolescents and adults, and we comment on the advantages and challenges of including younger adolescents who have historically been excluded. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Inclusion of young adolescents in policy development for new tuberculosis vaccines
The infant tuberculosis vaccine, BCG, prevents severe tuberculosis disease, but protection is rarely durable beyond childhood. New tuberculosis vaccines are being developed for the prevention of infec...
thelancet.com
Poverty is a major driver of TB.Conditional cash transfers combined with counselling improve pre-treatment loss to follow-up.In this economic analysis our modelling projections show that this intervention is cost-effective and can reduce incidence and mortality. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Cost-effectiveness of conditional cash transfers with pre- and post-test tuberculosis counselling in South Africa: a modelling analysis
Tuberculosis (TB) disproportionately affects low-income populations due to socioeconomic barriers. Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) are promising str…
sciencedirect.com
It's been 10 years since we published our first review of sex differences in #TB prevalence. In this update, we found men remain twice as likely as women to have TB, and disparities have likely widened over time. journals.plos.org/plosmedicine...
We updated our review of sex diff. in #TB prevalence In 102 surveys (4.7M participants) men were 2x as likely to have TB than women Evidence consistent with sex differences widening over time 🧪🛟 journals.plos.org/plosmedicine... @nswartwood.bsky.social @kchorton.bsky.social @uofgshw.bsky.social
Key message: Eliminating undernutrition could prevent millions of people from developing TB. Scaling up nutritional interventions (which are likely to have myriad social and health benefits), particularly for populations in greatest need, should be an integral part of the global TB response.
So...what would happen to the global TB epidemic if we "eliminated" undernutrition? Our paper out now @lancetgh.bsky.social, where we combined estimates from our review (doi.org/10.1093/ije/...) with population-specific BMI distributions to find out...(www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...)
Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence averted by eliminating undernutrition in adults: a modelling study
Current efforts to reduce global tuberculosis incidence have proved insufficient, highlighting that urgent action is needed to address underlying modi…
sciencedirect.com
In this mathematical modelling study, Katherine Horton & co assess #TB community screening approaches & their estimated effects on TB incidence & mortality, concluding that methods that capture both infectious & non-infectious TB are needed to achieve sustained case reductions🧪 plos.io/4tuD2SM
Trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, population coverage, and duration of community screening for tuberculosis: A modelling study
In a mathematical modelling study, Katherine Horton and colleagues assess different tuberculosis (TB) community screening approaches and their estimated effects on TB incidence and mortality over ten ...
plos.io
First up is a modelling study by Hira Tanvir and colleagues, which estimates the potential impact of new #tuberculosis vaccines under three scenarios of efficacy, underscoring the need for TB vaccine trials to measure impact against asymptomatic disease🧪 #WorldImmunizationWeek plos.io/3Qw9MwK
Estimating the population impact of new tuberculosis vaccines depending on efficacy against infectious asymptomatic tuberculosis: A modelling study
Hira Tanvir and colleagues estimate the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines under three scenarios of efficacy and conclude that to achieve the greatest impact, vaccines must prevent asymptom...
plos.io
It's #WorldImmunizationWeek 💉this year's theme is "for every generation, vaccines work". This week we are amplifying this message by highlighting research & perspectives evaluating & demonstrating the efficacy, safety, cost-effectiveness & impact of #vaccines in protecting health & saving lives🧪
Out now! Our preprint reviewing effects of extreme weather events on TB. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... @mjsaunder.bsky.social with Lauren Linde & Leo Martinez @bostonu.bsky.social & many others @tb-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @lshtm-planet.bsky.social
We found that #TB epidemics are becoming increasingly urbanised. Important implications for supporting effective public health interventions to end tuberculosis epidemics. 🧪 #MedSky @uofgshw.bsky.social @kchorton.bsky.social @nswartwood.bsky.social journals.plos.org/plosmedicine...
In this systematic review & meta-analysis, Mortazavi & colleagues (@petermacp.bsky.social) investigate urban vs rural differences in #TB prevalence between 2000 and 2024 in 26 low- and middle-income countries, finding that TB epidemics have become increasingly urbanized 🧪 #MedSky plos.io/3O79BqY
Great to see this work led by @alexandra-richards.bsky.social with @lightontb.bsky.social in @commsmed.nature.com. Further evidence that addressing gender disparities in TB burden and care are necessary for both an equitable response *and* an effective response. ⬇️
New study led by @alexandra-richards.bsky.social. Reducing men’s TB risk and improving treatment access could have big impacts on #TB incidence and deaths for men, women, and children. www.nature.com/articles/s43... @kchorton.bsky.social @uofgshw.bsky.social @lightontb.bsky.social
In our latest paper in @plosmedicine.org, we explore trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, coverage, and duration of community screening for #TB, highlighting the importance of symptom-agnostic approaches and the need for strategies to sustain impact when screening ends. plos.io/4tuD2SM
In this mathematical modelling study, Katherine Horton & co assess #TB community screening approaches & their estimated effects on TB incidence & mortality, concluding that methods that capture both infectious & non-infectious TB are needed to achieve sustained case reductions🧪 plos.io/4tuD2SM
Tomorrow! If you're not lucky enough to be in Cape Town in person, @tb-lshtm.bsky.social is hosting a watch party in London or join remotely tinyurl.com/47w5nmtp ⏰ 15.30 BST @theunion.org @thelancet.com @joylawn.bsky.social @sedonasweeney.bsky.social @hr-stagg.bsky.social @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social
A year after my last day with @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social my work on modelling the impact of increasing men's access to care and reducing excess risk of TB has gone live @commsmed.nature.com www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Modelling the impact of increasing tuberculosis treatment coverage and addressing determinants of risk in men - Communications Medicine
Richards et al. use a compartmental transmission model of tuberculosis to understand the impact of strategies to improve men’s access to care and to reduce men’s excess risk of TB. In all four countri...
nature.com
What if targeting TB in men could benefit entire populations? This new modelling study from @alexandra-richards.bsky.social suggests exactly that 👇 ✔️ More treatment coverage ✔️ Address social & structural risks 👉 Big reductions in TB incidence & mortality 🔗 www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Happy to see that our work in TB vaccine acceptability in Brazilian prions is on! 6 male and 2 female prison units at 6 Brazilian cities, >900 individual interviews, with 95.2% of acceptance to a new proposed TB vaccine. However... #TBsky #IDsky www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Acceptability of a proposed new tuberculosis vaccine among people deprived of liberty in Brazil
Tuberculosis (TB) persists as a global threat, with unequal burden across populations. New TB vaccines are in development, and people deprived of libe…
sciencedirect.com
Our analysis of #TB exposure and transmission patterns is now in @pnas.org. @petedodd24.bsky.social and I found a majority of TB transmission globally is attributable to contact with adult men, while contributions to transmission by age are more variable across regions. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Understanding patterns of #TB exposure and transmission is needed for targeted prevention strategies. In our latest pre-print, @petedodd24.bsky.social and I estimated the proportion of TB exposure to and transmission from sex and age groups for 177 countries. bit.ly/4nbV492
🗞️ Recent study with @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social modelled the potential impact of funding cuts to TB #PublicHealth initiatives from international donors Already implemented USAID cuts could cost $7.5 billion (USD) for healthcare systems & people living with TB Read 🔽 www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/cen...
With Nick Menzies and @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social, our new modeling study estimated how reductions in donor funding could affect the economic burden of #TB on patients, especially among the poorest households journals.plos.org/plosmedicine...
The potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study
In a modelling study, Allison Portnoy and colleagues investigate the potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of Tuberculosis in low- and middle-income ...
journals.plos.org
Our recent modelling study found that the estimated impact of new TB vaccines depends on the efficacy to prevent infectious asymptomatic TB. Read more in our paper out now in @plosmedicine.org! journals.plos.org/plosmedicine...
Estimating the population impact of new tuberculosis vaccines depending on efficacy against infectious asymptomatic tuberculosis: A modelling study
Hira Tanvir and colleagues estimate the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines under three scenarios of efficacy and conclude that to achieve the greatest impact, vaccines must prevent asymptom...
journals.plos.org
In this modeling study, Allison Portnoy and colleagues investigate the potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries 🧪 #MedSky #TB plos.io/4ryyBFX
The potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study
In a modelling study, Allison Portnoy and colleagues investigate the potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of Tuberculosis in low- and middle-income ...
plos.io
We know conflict & crises have severe repercussions for TB; health system disruptions, displacement, food insecurity... In our latest paper we examine the effects of war in Ukraine on engagement with a digital adherence tech by people w TB & health care workers journals.theunion.org/content/ijtl...
The effects of war on digital adherence technology engagement for TB treatment in Ukraine
SUMMARYBACKGROUNDThe Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has disrupted TB care. We examine the effects of the war on people with drug-susceptible TB (PWTB) and health care worker (HCW) engagement with a digital adherence technology (DAT).METHODSWe conducted a cluster-randomised trial of a DAT intervention in Ukraine. In the intervention arm, PWTB received a pillbox with a daily treatment reminder. Pillbox openings were captured real-time onto a platform, accessed by HCWs who could add manual doses where relevant. We compared DAT engagement in pre-, early-, and later-war periods.RESULTSFrom June 2021 to 2022, 816 PWTB (32% women, median age 44 years) were enrolled. DAT engagement varied across regions and time period, with a decline in engagement post-February 2022. PWTB DAT engagement was 78%–84% of treatment-days. There was a three- to four-fold increase in unknown dose or delays in manual reporting of adherence (>7 days) post-February 2022 versus pre-war in Mykolaivska and Donetska oblasts and a two-fold increase in Odeska, Lvivska, and Zakarpatska oblasts.CONCLUSIONThe war significantly disrupted DAT engagement, particularly in regions heavily affected by the conflict. Reduced engagement was likely due to migration and communication challenges. There is a critical need for resilient TB care in conflict settings.
journals.theunion.org
1/📢 In our new publication, we estimate that in 2022, 134 million people worldwide had a recent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection and were at high risk of progressing to TB disease. Read the full paper in PLOS Medicine (tinyurl.com/mtbinfection). #TBSky
Estimating the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: A mathematical modelling study
Alvaro Schwalb and colleagues conducted a mathematical modelling study to estimate the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis--that which can cause disease and be transmitted--to help guid...
tinyurl.com
In this mathematical modeling study, Alvaro Schwalb and colleagues estimate the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis—that which can cause disease and be transmitted—to help guide disease prevention efforts 🧪 #tuberculosis #MedSky plos.io/4aqzIQV
Estimating the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: A mathematical modelling study
Alvaro Schwalb and colleagues conducted a mathematical modelling study to estimate the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis--that which can cause disease and be transmitted--to help guid...
plos.io
Our new paper on strategies for implementing a potential new #TB #vaccine in South Africa is now published in @plosglobalpublichealth.org! doi.org/10.1371/jour...
Insights on the implementation strategies for a potential new tuberculosis vaccine in South Africa
Several tuberculosis (TB) vaccines intended for adults and adolescents are in late-stage clinical trials, but there is limited research into how a new TB vaccine would be introduced. South Africa is a...
doi.org
Our Editor’s Choice commentary in @cidjournal.bsky.social finds that reported TB symptoms are an inadequate classifier of disease state, as they are heavily influenced by context and substantial interviewer variability, and may have alternative causes. Read more here👇🏻 doi.org/10.1093/cid/...
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doi.org
@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social is offering multiple PhD opportunities through MRC LID, deadline 14 Jan. More details: mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/applicants/ Projects include #1 TB & screening #2 TB & climate change #3 TB & vaccines #4 TB & influenza #5 TB & prevention @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social
Information for applicants - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships
MRC LID studentship information for applicants How to Apply Projects Studentship funding Studentship options Studentship...
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk