Klara Müller
@klaramueller.bsky.social
Political Scientist | Postdoc & Scientific Coordinator at @gesistraining.bsky.social | PhD from @gessunimannheim.bsky.social Political behaviour, public opinion, quantitative methods and all things sports. 📈🗳️🚴♀️🏃♀️ 🌐 https://klara-mueller.com/
Pedro Sánchez creating an unexpected (?) occasion to put this out here again. Seems like we will need to add a new robustness test to this piece… 🇪🇸👀
Klara Müller@klaramueller.bsky.social · 2mo ago📢 New paper out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social (w/ @aleferna.bsky.social)! Asking how a snap election call affects vote choice (un)certainty, we find that they tend to increase voters’ confidence in their vote intentions. The longer answer: 🧵👇 OA here: doi.org/10.1016/j.el...
Our School of Politics and International Relations at @ucddublin.bsky.social is hiring two permanent (!) Assistant Professors in any field of political science, international relations, political theory, or development. Deadline: 9 November Start date: 30 August 2027 my.corehr.com/pls/coreport...
We're hiring at School of Social Sciences at Univ of Mannheim Full Professorship (W-3) in Social Data Science and Social Science Methodology Apply by Oct 22 2026 www.sowi.uni-mannheim.de/en/about/job... @methodsnet.bsky.social
Job Vacancies
sowi.uni-mannheim.de
Another round of my favourite PoliSci conference done. Liverpool, it‘s been a blast! Now entering recovery mode. #EPOP2026
The Rainbow Vote now has a cover & publication date. www.therainbowvote.com 🗳️🏳️🌈 Please consider pre-ordering, or asking your institution’s library to pre-order! Insufferable self-promotion to follow but I am dutifully celebrating every milestone along the way to publication day in February 😎
New WP!📄📣 For anyone working with quasi-experiments (especially UESD) and survey data, this is for you. Treatment events may affect not only opinions, but also survey participation and thereby bias causal estimates. I develop a framework to assess and tackle this bias. osf.io/preprints/so...
📢 New paper out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social (w/ @aleferna.bsky.social)! Asking how a snap election call affects vote choice (un)certainty, we find that they tend to increase voters’ confidence in their vote intentions. The longer answer: 🧵👇 OA here: doi.org/10.1016/j.el...
1/ Happy to share our paper 'Still Instrumentally Inclusive' w/ @turnbulldugarte.com in @apsrjournal.bsky.social. Understanding homonationalism remains important. Recent events (Berlin) have shown how quickly LGBT+ rights can become instrumentalized in debates about immigration and Islam.
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR@cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 3mo ago#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social - Still Instrumentally Inclusive - https://cup.org/4bhrhsp "Do individuals in Western democracies shift their views on LGBT+ inclusion when exposed to opposition from Muslim out-groups?" - @turnbulldugarte.com & @bertous.bsky.social #FirstView
🚨 New article🔥 with @mguinjoan.bsky.social & @joelardiaca.bsky.social in @wepsocial.bsky.social ➡️Climate action often enjoys broad public support... until governments propose specific measures. The key? Costs, benefits, and who pays 🧵 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Public support for climate policies: costs, redistribution, and ideological divides
Securing public support for climate policies remains a major challenge. Citizens’ perceptions of the costs, benefits, and distributive consequences of these policies are key factors shaping their a...
tandfonline.com
Unbelievably, there are *two* academic jobs at Cardiff University. One in British politics (seemingly broadly defined) cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/53... One in political behaviour/opinion 🙌 cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/52...
Lecturer in Politics - Teaching and Research in Law Building | Internal & External Website
View details and apply for this Lecturer in Politics - Teaching and Research vacancy in Law Building. Lecturer in Politics - Teaching & Research School of Law and Politics The School of Law a...
cardiffuniweb.eploy.net
Why do fewer people want the government to do more about climate change than five years ago? Maybe because the government is doing something about it. I wrote about how public opinion on net zero is (ironically?) like a thermostat: open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...
The Global Warming Thermostat
Why the public has stopped turning up the heat on climate policy action
open.substack.com
New working paper w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social @rantuna.bsky.social & @turnbulldugarte.com! *Does publicly refusing to cooperate with the far right only strengthen it?* A widespread belief says yes. In this paper, we test it based on a natural experiment from Spain. tinyurl.com/5azkfnas [1/6]
Genuinely interested in your views: What is the future of teaching statistical programming language for data science in the age of AI? Will we even still teach programming R or Python?
💡 Reminder: Open call for two additional contributions to our Special Issue "Methodological Advances for the Study of German Politics" @pvs-journal.bsky.social. 📅 Submit your abstract by the end of this week ⬇️ Details below
Denis Cohen@denis-cohen.bsky.social · 3mo ago📢 Open call for two additional contributions to our Special Issue "Methodological Advances for the Study of German Politics" @pvs-journal.bsky.social. 📄 Submit by July 12: www.sosci.uni-hamburg.de/pvs/ ℹ️ www.dvpw.de/gliederung/s... @gessler.bsky.social @lukrudolph.bsky.social @dvpw.bsky.social
📢 Job Ad: I am looking for one doctoral researcher (75%) in my newly funded DFG project on misperceptions and factual information on immigration from 1.10. or soon after! 📌 Location: MZES, University of Mannheim 💢 Application Deadline: 21st of July
📢 Open call for two additional contributions to our Special Issue "Methodological Advances for the Study of German Politics" @pvs-journal.bsky.social. 📄 Submit by July 12: www.sosci.uni-hamburg.de/pvs/ ℹ️ www.dvpw.de/gliederung/s... @gessler.bsky.social @lukrudolph.bsky.social @dvpw.bsky.social
Some news! 📣 This week I started a new postdoc position at @gesis.org. Besides continuing my research on public opinion, electoral behaviour, and all things measurement bias, I'll also be scientifically coordinating methods training at @gesistraining.bsky.social. Looking forward to what's ahead!
Another round of talking about how to tackle common biases in quasi-experimental designs, this time at @gesis.org in Cologne. 🗓️ May 11th, 10-11am, Room A-104, USH I'll be there Mon/Tue - feel free to reach out if you're around and fancy a chat☕ Join online here: ethz.zoom.us/j/69720935316
So pleased to share that I passed my viva yesterday 🎓✨ What a journey these past years have been! I’m happy, proud, and undeniably also quite relieved to have wrapped this up now. Now on to discovering what new challenges the world of political science has in store! 📚📊
📢 Out Now! V-Dem Dataset v16 & the V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2026 💾 The V-Dem Dataset: v-dem.net/data/the-v-d... 📰 The Report "Unraveling The Democratic Era?”: v-dem.net/publications... 📈 Explore the new data with the V-Dem Graphing tools: v-dem.net/graphing/gra... #PoliSky #PoliSciSky 1/3
The new V-Dem report was released today. There are dramatic declines in democracy in the US. Much worse than during Trump I.
Join us tomorrow for this exciting talk by @ankuepfer.bsky.social in the MZES Social Science Data Lab! Details and Zoom link ⬇️
MZES Social Science Data Lab@mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · 7mo ago🚨 Upcoming: "Politics in Action: Studying Multimodal Data from Local Meetings to National Parliaments" 👤 @ankuepfer.bsky.social (TU Darmstadt & University of Birmingham) 🗓️ Wed, March 11, 13:45-15:15 CET 📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
![2026-03-11 | Input talk | Andreas Küpfer (TU Darmstadt & University of Birmingham)
Politics in Action: Studying Multimodal Data from Local Meetings to National Parliaments
Hybrid event [A5, 6, Room A231 + Zoom]
März 11, 2026, 13:45-15:15
Abstract
The analysis of multimodal political communication enables political scientists to study how politicians and parties behave in previously untapped ways. While large volumes of audiovisual data are increasingly available, these data are typically unstructured and vary substantially in quality, requiring robust and carefully designed processing pipelines. This talk guides through the challenges and opportunities of analysing political video data across institutional contexts. Analysing videos from local political meetings, including US school boards and state supreme courts, allows the generation of features such as transcriptions, gendered speech shares, and agenda items. However, the often semi-professional production quality of such recordings limits the systematic use of visual information. By contrast, legislative debate recordings are typically standardised and post-edited, enabling the leverage of visual features such as eye contact seeking to study the emergence of dominant behaviour during parliamentary speech. Scaling multimodal processing and feature extraction workflows across heterogeneous institutional contexts is, therefore, crucial. It enables the systematic study of political communication across levels of government and over longer time periods.
Presenter
Andreas Küpfer is a Postdoctoral Researcher in the DFG-funded project "Analysing Legislative Politics with Aligned Text, Audio and Image Data" at the Institute for Political Science of the Technical University of Darmstadt, holding a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Mannheim. He works at the intersection of Data Science and Political Science. His research focuses on (multimodal) political communication, combining computational with tradi…](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:oizrkjzyr6vekl76tjctghcl/bafkreiawvyqdytqoc4essm7llpzps33qsxpv6spg6i4fi5fk7qy33p63ye)
🚨 Content alert 🚨 New recording and workshop materials published! ➡️ When Events Change Samples: Disentangling Causal Effects from Compositional Bias in Quasi-Experimental Designs 👤 @klaramueller.bsky.social (Uni Mannheim) 📺 youtu.be/kYdDGgaI95w 🗒️ github.com/SocialScienc...
Disentangling Causal Effects from Compositional Bias in Quasi-Experimental Designs
YouTube video by MZES Methods Bites
youtu.be
🗳️ Neue Prognose: Landtagswahlen in Baden-Württemberg (8. März) und Rheinland-Pfalz (22. März) BW: Kopf-an-Kopf CDU vs. Grüne. RP: CDU und SPD fast gleichauf. Unsere Modellvorhersage mit 5/6-Kredibilitätsintervallen und Szenario-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 👇 zweitstimme.org/posts/blog/f...
Join us tomorrow for this exciting talk by @klaramueller.bsky.social in the MZES Social Science Data Lab! Details and Zoom link ⬇️
MZES Social Science Data Lab@mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · 8mo ago🚨 Upcoming: "When Events Change Samples: Disentangling Causal Effects from Compositional Bias in Quasi-Experimental Designs" 👤 Klara Müller (University of Mannheim) 🗓️ Wed, February 25, 13:45-15:15 CET 📺 Register for the live stream: us02web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
![2026-02-25 | Input talk | Klara Müller (University of Mannheim)
When Events Change Samples: Disentangling Causal Effects from Compositional Bias in Quasi-Experimental Designs
Hybrid event [A5, 6, Room A231 + Zoom]
Februar 25, 2026, 13:45-15:15
Abstract
From political psychology, we know that salient political events can shape political attitudes and behavior. In studying such event effects, quasi-experimental designs, such as the unexpected event during survey design (UESD), have become increasingly popular. To allow for causal identification, these designs rest on quite strict assumptions, one of which is the random assignment of respondents to the pre- and post-event sample and the comparability of these samples. From survey methodology, however, we also know that external events can affect who responds to surveys. If event-triggered shifts in survey participation and sample composition are related to outcome variables of interest, causal estimates of an event’s effect may be biased. This problem is particularly challenging when compositional shifts involve unobserved or even unobservable factors. In this talk, I provide intuition for how such compositional bias can threaten causal conclusions in quasi-experimental settings. I present a framework to disentangle an event’s “true” causal effect from compositional bias, with a particular focus on the UESD approach. The framework outlines practical strategies to adjust for observable imbalances and extends sensitivity analyses to assess how strong unobserved confounders would have to be to change or undermine substantive causal conclusions. I illustrate the approach using the rally-around-the-flag effect following the 2015 Charlie Hebdo attacks in France, as well as replications of published UESD studies on terrorist events and rally-style outcomes. By addressing both observable and unobservable sources of bias, this framework enhances causal inference and strengthens the credibility of public opinion research in d…](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:oizrkjzyr6vekl76tjctghcl/bafkreic2cgit5plcrxatdivgtpsgu3lcasarcxqw33t5no6a7fzcp2smyi)
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social with @rafaelahlskog.bsky.social & @grahn.bsky.social Your neighbours shape your politics — but can living near people like *cause* higher turnout? We studied 20,000+ queer individuals across the entire Swedish population to find out doi.org/10.1086/740816
Rallied by thy neighbor: how minority spatial concentration increases voter turnout | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
doi.org
Excited to kick off the @mzes-ssdl.bsky.social Spring series 🙌 I’ll talk about different threats to causal inference in quasi-experimental designs and share hands-on tools to tackle common biases. Hybrid event, so happy to see non-Mannheim folks joining on Zoom as well! 🗓️ Feb 25th, 1.45pm CET
MZES Social Science Data Lab@mzes-ssdl.bsky.social · 8mo ago▶️ Social Science Data Lab: Spring 2026 Events Four input talks by great researchers (see below ⤵️)! 🗓️ Details & Zoom: socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events/ 👥 Organizers: @rubac.bsky.social, @denis-cohen.bsky.social and Alexander Wenz
We‘re very excited for the next edition of the Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology in Mannheim! ✨ Join us and apply until 1 March! More info in @melinscribe.bsky.social‘s thread below and here: summerschoolwpm.org Application form: sosci.sowi.uni-mannheim.de/wpm/
Melanie Sauter@melinscribe.bsky.social · 8mo ago🚨 Join us for the next edition Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology in Mannheim 🚨 7 days of hands-on advanced methods + networking for PhDs, postdocs & early-career researchers. Free of charge (limited travel support). Deadline 1 March 2026: summerschoolwpm.org #methodsky #polisky
🚨 Join us for the next edition Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology in Mannheim 🚨 7 days of hands-on advanced methods + networking for PhDs, postdocs & early-career researchers. Free of charge (limited travel support). Deadline 1 March 2026: summerschoolwpm.org #methodsky #polisky
