eridyn.bsky.social
@eridyn.bsky.social
Millennial that thinks the internet was a mistake.™️
Realized a succinct summary of my current career 1/2: By and large, those who are intellectually equipped to study the subject are dismissive and disinterested, carelessly applying cookbook methods without consideration of their suitability, and so produce inaccurate characterizations;
This is the way. You can see here why the seasonally adjusted series has started to fall off - employment this year peaked in the fall instead of the spring, the trough is lower. It does look like the sector may have peaked but you can‘t rule out a change in the seasonal pattern either
Jesse Rothstein@jrothst.bsky.social · 2w agoI always find it helpful to look at (a) levels and (b) non-seasonally adjusted data alongside the seasonal. Here I've done both. You can see why the SA employment looks like it declined, but also why it is important to be cautious in interpretation - the SA algorithm has a *lot* of work to do here.
So, I seem to have the most blaisé take of anyone on today's jobs report. Odd for me to be the "optimist" in any group. Mini thread follows, but main point: - Unemployment rate down, labor force status flows suggest due to less job loss - Lack of immigration reduces "speed limit" substantially
If you're interested in short-term trends, look at change since January - NOT December. Otherwise, use the Harmonized data from @chrisnekarda.com et al (I don't think the others are on bsky?) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...
Harmonized Population and Labor Force Statistics
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
federalreserve.gov
Guy Berger@econberger.bsky.social · 2w agoFolks - I'm seeing a fair amount of labor force participation takes that don't realize the published numbers pre- and post-January 2026 are NOT COMPARABLE. Of the 0.8pp decline in LFPR over the past year, over *half* is a statistical artifact. (The other half is real.)
Everything is not about material outcomes. In fact, that framing obscures what’s really behind it (emotion + identity) and leads people down the false road that “good policy” will solve the problems. It’s the rationalization that refuses to die.
Okay. I got this very wrong. The ongoing counting this morning did not further close the margin, and now Stevens has conceded and both Stevens and the DSCC have released statements congratulating AES. So, we're avoiding the prolonged infighting after all.
eridyn.bsky.social@eridyn.bsky.social · 2w agoMy main reaction to the under 1 point margin, regardless the final result: I wonder how many recounts and lawsuits this will get to, and how much more acrimonious the infighting will be.
My main reaction to the under 1 point margin, regardless the final result: I wonder how many recounts and lawsuits this will get to, and how much more acrimonious the infighting will be.
Steve Herman@newsguy.bsky.social · 2w agoThe Democratic Senate race in Michigan remains too close to call with Abdul El-Sayed clinging to a narrow lead over US Rep. Haley Stevens. www.freep.com/story/news/poli...
This just reminded me to look at the Ann Arbor mayoral race
Brendan Cantwell@cantb.bsky.social · 2w agoCollege town politics are so odd. Everyone wants Medicare for all, but also the criminalize homelessness while blocking the construction of all apartment buildings
A lot of the stuff with think as quintessential to a place or culture is extremely recent and comes from local innovation on immigrant's imports.
This POTUS betrays the Constitution and the Union. He treats Americans as enemies just because of which state they live in.
Duncan Lawrence@uncadunc.bsky.social · 4w ago"DOE accepts that the inclusion of grants in the October notice tranche was based solely on the political identity of the grant recipient’s state, i.e., whether the recipient’s location and/or place of performance was in a Blue State or a non-Blue State."
Food for thought! "Humble VARs" by Régis Barnichon, Geert Mesters, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson. "We argue that VARs for impulse response analysis should...be viewed more modestly..." conference.nber.org/conf_papers/...
Topical
VoxEU @ CEPR@voxeu.org · 4w agoIn countries & states with career civil-service protections, the usual drag of populist governance largely vanishes. Without those institutional cushions, the economy takes a hit. What matters is that bureaucracy is professional & insulated. Massimo Morelli et al. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
I hate the fact that I have to learn what Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act is. I hate that I have learned what cyclosporiasis is. I hate that the tax gap is $600B and growing. Finally, I hate that people still don't realize how important the government is.
Oh My God Fozzie Bear and Muppets
ALT: Oh My God Fozzie Bear and Muppets
static.klipy.com
Canadians fronted the money to build the bridge. They used US materials. They're getting their huge, generous contribution recouped slowly over decades from toll collections. Just a massive favor to the US Attempting to unilaterally claim half the toll revenue now? I don't even know how to respond.
Matt Novak@paleofuture.bsky.social · 4w ago“Canada disinvited the United States of America to the opening of the Gordie Howe Bridge, which is fine…”
The tariff discussion has moved on to cussing about PowerBI. #DispatchesFromExurban/RuralSmallTownMidwest
eridyn.bsky.social@eridyn.bsky.social · 4w ago... dammit, the guy at the next table over is talking about how he both spacex at the IPO and sold all of it, meanwhile the table behind us is talking about tariffs
Putting a pin here as a, "I ate fresh food," mark in case the spinach I just had proves my wife's worry about it warranted.
Conor Sen@conorsen.bsky.social · last mo.If you get a frosted peach lemonade from Chick-fil-A that doesn’t have any cyclosporiasis risk right
"Schrödinger's Ceasefire" Did I just coin that or have I stolen it from someone else's post, seen when half-asleep?
eridyn.bsky.social@eridyn.bsky.social · last mo.Actually, I haven't been looking at news or anything online today. I'm just assuming this is about the war with Iran and Schrödinger's Ceasefire.
Definitely wasn't easy for me, but if you cheat you don't learn shit. Come to think of it, we're going to have a whole new round of natural experiments for the human capital vs signaling bit really soon now.
Regime Accountant, CPA ☠️🎢@regimecpa.bsky.social · last mo.“You have to cheat to get through college,” sorry, no you don’t, college is easy
Bring back smoke filled rooms (but fill them with flavored vapes).
Darin Self@darinself.com · last mo.(•_•) <) )╯ Donald Trump / \ (•_•) \( (> Wouldn't be president / \ (•_•) <) )╯if parties didn't use primaries / \
Just being cynical, but I'm fairly certain these headlines will make a lot of folks think better of him. "Other countries are sending gifts! Look how much they respect and admire us now!" "Oh! He's so such a competent business man!"
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 2mo agoTrump’s market gains dominate Page One. @wsj.com @nytimes.com @financialtimes.com
🥳🥳🥳 I can't properly say just how useful these harmonized data have been. Thrilled to see them updated.
Chris Nekarda@chrisnekarda.com · 2mo agoUpdated #FEDSPaper estimates: Harmonized time series (population, unemployment rate, LFPR, etc) for 1948-2025 and harmonized #CPS microdata weights are available to download at doi.org/10.17016/FED... #EconSky #labormarket #data #BLS
Our annual award recognizing the best PhD dissertation on employment-related issues is still taking submissions! All academic disciplines are welcome, as long as it has a major employment and policy focus. The deadline is July 20th. Learn more: buff.ly/T0rqi6j #econsky
Dissertation Award | Upjohn Institute
The W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research is now accepting submissions for its annual award recognizing the best PhD dissertation on employment-related issues. The Institute has sponsored…
buff.ly
