@icarus62.bsky.social

Climate change never ignites a fire. That’s almost always humans or lightning. But it’s clear when we examine the data that climate heating sets the table for fires that burn faster and larger. Since the 1980s temperatures during fire season in the Pacific NW have warmed around 4°F… 1/

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2026 El Niño models continue their inexorable march upwards. CanSIPS (which used to be among the cooler ones!) released their August runs today, and now show a Nov/Dec peak of 3.6C (CanESM5) and 4.2C (GEM-NEMO). For reference, the prior record El Niño peaked at 2.8C.

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If women wore smart glasses, they'd be banned. (soigomaa/x) Think about it. If millions of women wore smart glasses, recording men's behaviour, conversations, comments, their driving & bar chats ... can you imagine the panic? Trust me, smart glasses would be regulated before you can say 'Meta'.

If it wasn’t for truck drivers, we’d starve. If it wasn’t for sanitation workers, we’d be overrun by rats and disease. If it wasn’t for construction workers, we wouldn’t have roads and the economy would collapse. Just because a job isn’t glorious doesn’t mean it’s not existentially important.

This thread highights a subtle and difficult messaging problem. Achieving netZero will not reverse the impacts of the current climate, which has been heated up by historical CO2 emissions. It is too late for that. The point of netZero is to prevent the future situation from getting even worse. ..

Kees van der Leun@sustainable2050.bsky.social · 3d ago

The nasty little thing with climate change is that the situation progressively gets worse as long as we emit greenhouse gases, and that is irreversible. So there's no happy message "Let's bring emissions to zero and then everything will be alright" Nope, everything will be worse than it is now. 1/

This is a key point. Reducing CO2 emissions to net zero is needed to stop things getting worse. On it's own it doesn't turn back the clock. But some ppl (you know who) pretend that emission cuts are unrelated to climate impacts via extreme weather. They are dissembling.

ClimateBook@climatebook.bsky.social · 2d ago

This thread highights a subtle and difficult messaging problem. Achieving netZero will not reverse the impacts of the current climate, which has been heated up by historical CO2 emissions. It is too late for that. The point of netZero is to prevent the future situation from getting even worse. ..

A first year above 2C in the mid-2030s now looks plausible. 0.5C was first passed in 1980, 1.0C in 2010 and 1.5C in 2024. The 15-year trend runs at 0.42C per decade. The 2026 and 2027 points for the current El Nino are estimates. We're not remotely ready!

Line chart titled "A first year above 2 C in the mid-2030s looks increasingly plausible". It shows global mean surface temperature from 1940 to 2050 as the annual anomaly against the 1850 to 1900 baseline, in degrees C. Data is ERA5 from Copernicus, running to 31 July 2026.

A thin gold line shows individual years, wobbling around a thick dark blue smoothed trend. Both sit near 0.2 C through the 1940s to the early 1970s, then climb steadily from the mid-1970s onward.

Three red dots mark the first year each threshold was passed. 0.5 C in 1980, 1.0 C in 2010 and 1.5 C in 2024. Labels beneath note the gap of 30 years between the first two and 14 years between the second and third. Everything above 1.5 C is shaded pink.

Two dashed lines run forward from 2025. A blue line follows the 15-year trend of 0.42 C per decade and reaches 2 C in 2037. A fainter grey line follows the 30-year trend of 0.27 C per decade and reaches 2 C in 2044.

Two orange circles mark estimates for the developing El Niño, at about 1.5 C for 2026 and about 1.7 C for 2027.

Earth is now warming faster than at any point in recorded geological history - around 10 times faster than the extreme warming event 56 million years ago and 20 times faster than at the end of the last ice age. We are almost certainly in a new extinction event.

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Our world is a tinderbox as we approach 1.5C above preindustrial temps. We’re locked in for at least 2C, & on track for 4C in our children’s ‘lifetimes’. Tumbleweeds as we wait for governments, the media & the public to provide a proportionate response to this information.

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The IMF says we pay $5T/year to subsidize fossil fuels — that's $13M per MINUTE to destroy our future. Meanwhile solar & wind fight for scraps. We don't have a funding problem. We have a priority problem.

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We're just here taking a day trip in our little car, driving carefully, following the rules. And there are always maniacs speeding, RACING, nearly clipping us, flying out of nowhere w/o indicating. The offenders are ALWAYS men. Sick of our lives being risked by dudes with small 🍆s & 💩 for brains.

It is much simpler: We know what we emitted since we know how much fossil fuel has been burned. And that’s twice as much as has accumulated in the atmosphere. So nature hasn’t been a source but a sink: oceans and forests took up half. And that’s also observed fact. www.climate.gov/news-feature...

How do we know the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is caused by humans?

Fossil fuels are the only source of carbon dioxide large enough to raise atmospheric carbon dioxide amounts so high so quickly.

climate.gov

The usual lies from climate deniers like Matt Ridley. Part of a broader pattern of paltering by bad actors like Bjorn Lomborg who misleadingly merge managed croplands & plains (which have seen decreases) with forests. See: www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-no...

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Dr. Genevieve Guenther (she/they)@doctorvive.bsky.social · 5d ago

There's a chart making the rounds of the right-wing disinformation-sphere, which supposedly shows a record low year for wildfires in Europe. In fact, it's highly misleading, mostly because @ourworldindata.org includes Russia (and thus all of Siberia) in their datasets about "Europe." 1/2

Dr Calum Cunningham, a research fellow at the University of Tasmania's Fire Centre, says that such claims are "highly misleading", noting that "they rely on aggregating fire
activity across an enormous and climatically diverse region". He tells Carbon Brief: "A relatively quiet season in Russia can easily mask an exceptionally active season in France or Spain. If the analysis is focused on the regions actually experiencing the
current fires, the picture is very different. "The reality is that western Europe has experienced an extraordinary sequence of
climate conditions this year."