@labsoftwaredev.bsky.social

Develops medical laboratory software. Emphasis on medical billing. Former Treasury VP (risk mgmt stuff) at ridiculously global bank, gave that up when I figured out they ignored risk management.

Today's update on the increasingly fragile state of AI related financings from Almost Daily Grant's. Money quote, quite literally: "CoreWeave saw its senior unsecured, 9.625% notes of 2032 reach a 900-basis point spread last Thursday...***with the yield-to-maturity exceeding 14%.***"

Chips are Down
“A lot of investors have no clue what they are investing in,” Broadcom CEO Hock Tan declared in Singapore Monday.  Referencing the feverish speculative fervor accompanying the ongoing AI boom, Tan inveighed against “very extreme expectations”  leaving markets resembling a “casino.”

In Singapore, too? AI-affiliated S&P 500 components such as semiconductors, data centers and hardware firms have added some $21 trillion in market capitalization since late 2022, per a Friday report from the International Monetary Fund, accounting for nearly 60% of total index gains over that stretch.

Yet as shareholders imagine the moon and the stars,  creditors seeking only the return of their capital with interest conduct their own reappraisal.  Option-adjusted spreads on the ICE BofA 15+ year U.S. Tech and Electronics Index have widened by about 50 basis points relative to the ICE 15+ year AAA-A U.S. Corporate Index since September of 2025, when the cadre of mega-cap hyperscalers commenced a slew of financings to facilitate the AI buildout.  Total borrowing for that purpose stands at $466 billion in the year-to-date, according to Morgan Stanley, up more than four-fold from this point in 2025, but new issuance slowed to $23 billion in September, the slowest single month of the year.“Actual day-to-day financing is getting a bit trickier,” John Aylward, founder of Sona Asset Management, relayed at a Financial Times-hosted event the other day. “Everybody’s being tapped and everybody’s getting a bit tighter.”

With a bevy of big-time deals looming – including SpaceX’s planned $40 billion fundraise to purchase Nvidia chips and a $60 billion package for Anthropic and Broadcom – could cooling credit conditions serve to dent the heretofore-bulletproof AI trade? Baa2/triple-B-minus/triple-B-rated Oracle’s senior unsecured, 5.7% notes due in 2036 settled Friday at a 236-basis point spread OAS, the widest since its February debut at 140-basis points. Ba3/single-B-plus-double-B-minus rated CoreWeave saw its senior unsecured, 9.625% notes of 2032 reach a 900-basis point spread last Thursday, versus 530 basis points at issuance in mid-June, with the yield-to-maturity exceeding 14%.

We're going to wind up with the Federal Reserve once again guaranteeing money market funds. Burry said 270 days, now that I'm thinking about it. That's the max tenor for commercial paper. Dunno if that's what he had in mind, but seems too coincidental.

Barchart@barchart.com · 8h ago

BREAKING 🚨: Housing Market The largest mortgage lender in the United States, United Wholesale Mortgage which was founded 40 years ago, has now plunged 86% since its 2021 IPO 📉 📉

This morning Claude couldn't find when a change happened despite my having granted it access to our change repository. I found it in seconds. Yeah, it's super intelligent alright, and its massive reasoning skills mean we can no longer tell if it's conscious. Riiiiggghhhhttt. Barnum was right.

S&P still being very resilient. I think it's down to a simple cause: wars are expensive, and the gov't is running a massive deficit to fund this one. So there's a ton of surplus bux in the system, exacerbated by Op Twist, which adds a marginal amt of s/t Treasuries, and that's keeping it up.

Ukraine doing the world a service by killing off the Russian bot farms. They might also win the war just by doing this, weirdly enough. WIthout these bots spreading racism & fascism around the world, Russia can't keep acting the spoiler to freedom's influence to keep their pathetic state in place.

Post nicht verfügbar.

It's 2:54 PM and I've had dinner. Be warned, if you marry a Mexican (or an American who grew up in Mexico from a very young age) be prepared to eat dinner early. Very early. It was delicious though. Washed down with Spanish wine, which has by far the best QPR (quality to price ratio) on the planet.

This volume is approximately equal to 16 hours of diesel consumption in the US. At the same time, America itself produces more fuel than it consumes and exports the surplus. It weakens the sanctions pressure on the Russian energy sector.

🇺🇸‼️🇺🇦 Trump's deal on Russian diesel is a "betrayal of Ukraine", - The Atlantic Trump's announced purchase of 2.25 million barrels of Russian diesel will have almost no effect on prices in the US, but could become a serious support for Moscow.

Bild

I take a strong position against other strong positions because it's distracting from the actual problem: OpenAI and Anthropic need to be shut down and their executives prosecuted. Even if we can't know the answer, even entertaining the possibility is playing into their hands

I once had what may have been the most complete collection of Monk records of anyone. Could not get enough of him. But even I was still too young to ever see him live. He was already gone from the public eye when I found his music. I did attend the memorial they had for him at the Citi jazz church.

Oct. 10, 1926: The St. Louis Cardinals win their first World Series in a Game 7 marked by drama and absurdity. Possibly hung-over veteran pitcher Grover Cleveland Alexander saves the day in the 7th inning with a bases-loaded strikeout; Babe Ruth is thrown out attempting a steal to end the game.

Tony Lazzeri after swinging and missing in the 7th inningRuth out at second in the 9th inningBild