Matt Patterson
@mattpattclimate.bsky.social
Research Fellow at the University of St Andrews and NCAS in climate science and ML. Interests in climate dynamics, jet streams and long-term prediction. Formerly at University of Reading and University of Oxford.
Meanwhile, north of the border: "Scotland has recorded 69% of its average rainfall and is the only nation not to come close to breaking records." "Scotland has not seen mean temperatures within its top 10 on record."
Met Office - weather and climate@metoffice.gov.uk · 2d agoJuly 2026 was an exceptional month for the UK's climate statistics, with records challenged or broken for rainfall, temperature and sunshine. Read more in our press release ⤵️ www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
Interesting regional differences in perceptions of summer heat especially the ‘v unhappy‘ group - we all experience climate change differently (a baking hot day in SE England but pleasant conditions in Scotland) and this makes comms harder. We’re all impacted, just not in the same way.
YouGov@yougov.co.uk · last wk.Would you be happy if this summer's weather became the norm? Happy: 38% Neither: 22% Unhappy: 38% yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...
With prolonged hot weather, and wildfires burning across the UK and Europe, what does this mean for air quality in the affected areas or places downwind? ncas.ac.uk/what-do-wild... #earth-science #SciComm 🧪
What do wildfires mean for air quality? - NCAS
Wildfires can have significant impacts on air quality, as wildfire smoke contains a mixture of hazardous air pollutants.
ncas.ac.uk
Wednesday sees the peak of the heat this week, with temperatures likely reaching 35 Celsius in eastern England📈 This would mark the 7th day of 2026 when the UK has recorded 35°C or higher. Prior to this year, the record was 5 days of ≥35°C, set in 1976 and 2020🌡️
Pleased to say that I've published my research from my previous role at MPI: We used a large ensemble decadal prediction system and found evidence of atmospheric circulation skill relating to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, although model deficiencies that limit skill persist:
Predictability of European summer climate: the influence of competing mechanisms related to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
Abstract. Skilful predictions of European summer climate are increasingly relevant due to an increasing probability of temperature extremes, but prediction skill beyond the forced trend has so far pro...
esd.copernicus.org
This looks like a super-interesting paper - Carvalho-Oliveira et al use ML to identify weather regimes linked to European summer circulation and argue that 70% of Europe's 'excess warming' (wrt global mean) occurs because of changes to atmospheric circulation (more southerly flow events).
EXPECT Project@expect-project.bsky.social · 2w ago📊 New study shows how machine learning identifies a southerly circulation regime driving most Western European summer heatwaves and helps explaining recent warming and extremes. 👉 iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
1. We—@eduede.bsky.social, @mjcrockett.bsky.social, Kevin Gross, and I—have a new preprint on the arXiv today, based on ideas that emerged during an @sfiscience.bsky.social workshop in November 2024: The unintended consequences of large language models as a labor-augmenting technology in science.
The unintended consequences of large language models as a labor-augmenting technology in science
As a labor-augmenting technology, large language models (LLMs) have the potential to accelerate scientific activity across the research pipeline. But even if LLMs perform on par with human experts at ...
arxiv.org
Have you noticed an opaqueness to the blue sky this morning? Wildfire smoke from North America is drifting south across the UK, meaning the clear skies may not be as blue as you might expect 🌤️
𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀: climate change “unequivocally to blame” for extreme heat 𝗨𝗞 𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮: no reference to climate change in almost 3/4 of articles referring to the 'heatwave' or 'extreme heat' during last month’s record high temps 🧵 👇
Wildfires in Europe so far this summer have led to Spain's deadliest in decades, with temperature anomalies peaking around +9°C in France and Germany and a high of 45.1°C in southern Spain. But how is the UK 'fire wave' after its first 'megafire' that burnt for four days in Dava Moor in May? 1/n
"The average hottest day of the year has warmed by over 4.5°C in a swathe from Kent to Lincolnshire for the most recent decade, 2016-2025, compared to 1961-1990" From the State of the UK Climate in 2025, first published yesterday.
New blog post from @ncas-uk.bsky.social St Andrews group leader Ioana Colfescu on El Niño's impact's around the world. sites.google.com/ncas.ac.uk/n...
NCAS St Andrews - 2026-07-13 Ioana Colfescu The High Tide on the Rising Sea
Lismore Lighthouse (Eilean Musdile), standing guard at the mouth of Loch Linnhe, seen from the deck of the Oban–Craignure ferry on the way to Mull. Photo by Ioana Colfescu
sites.google.com
With all the July model runs now in, it is very likely that 2026 will see the largest El Niño event since records began in the late 1800s – and potentially by a truly mind-blowing margin. The median estimate is now 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record (2.75C). www.theclimatebrink....
In the 20th century, there were many years where the temperature never exceeded 30°C *anywhere* in the UK. In 1974, the highest temperature was a mere 28.0°C, which really underscores how extreme 1976 was for the time. That climate no longer exists.
Zeke Hausfather@zekehausfather.com · 4w agoWhy is AC so rare in much of Europe? Well, until recently it simply wasn't hot enough to need it. Here is the average number of days above 30C (86F) for major cities over time:
Wrote about the ways people have implemented physical constraints in ML-driven weather forecast systems: notesonclimate.substack.com/p/physical-c... Physics still matters! But there are also a lot of open questions, and, as an outsider, I think this would benefit from a more systematic approach
notesonclimate.substack.com
Temperatures have exceeded 34°C today for the 8th day this year 🌡️ That makes it a record for the most number of 34°C or higher in a calendar year 👇 The record was previously set in 1976 and 2020 for 7 days
🥵 Expecting 35C even something a bit hotter tomorrow. Never in history of London meteorological history or indeed also true countrywide have we seen 35C (95F) in 3 consecutive months. Even non-consecutively it never happened... (1/2)
Striking! The range of solutions tightening up - note how the lower bound of, for example, Sept 2026 is up from 1.9ish to about 2.5...
Zeke Hausfather@zekehausfather.com · last mo.If we look at RONI – which differences tropical sea surface temperatures from the ENSO3.4 region temperatures – we see an event reaching 3.3C in December, and are about 0.2C warmer than the June forecasts.
1. A bit of evolutionary biology. I'm really intrigued by a new perspective piece from Steve Frank that explores connections between how natural selection creates systems that generalize and recent work in machine learning about the surprising capabilities of massively overparameterized systems.
Generalization as the great leap in evolvability: insights from machine learning
Abstract. Natural selection encodes learned information in the genome. Learned solutions may be tuned specifically to past challenges, failing in altered e
academic.oup.com
I've just reached my own personal milestone of 10 years at NCAS and am deeply proud to be part of our 25 year history!
National Centre for Atmospheric Science@ncas-uk.bsky.social · last mo.25 years, one changing atmosphere, and a community of NCAS people dedicated to understanding it. Together we've enabled 25 years of discovery, collaboration, and impact. Together, we're leading atmospheric science in a changing world - and we're only getting started. Let's celebrate together 💙
I've been wondering about the role of El Niño too. The recurring heatwaves in western Europe, while cooler in E/NE-Europe seem to match with the El Niño correlations, at least qualitatively. (Maps from erikwkolstad.com/blog/)
With new monthly temperature records set in May and June, 9 out of 12 months have now set their record since 2003. For lowest daily minimum, none of the monthly records were set in the 21st C. A sure sign of our rapidly warming climate. www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/cli...
Tough night? A historic warm night in capital with overnight low of 22.6C at #London Heathrow, a record breaking warm night of any month. The former record was 22.3C in July 2016. Until this heatwave the June highest minimum was 20.8C (1976) this has been broken on 3 nights maybe 1 more to add.
Is it hot right now - yes its roasting! In Scotland "roasting" is commonly used to describe hot days above about 20 °C! Today it reached 30°C where I come from in Kilmarnock, possibly the hottest June day on record.
Ed Hawkins@edhawkins.org · last mo.Yes, it's roasting! Watch the temperatures across the UK rise during the rest of the day: istheukhotrightnow.com Website: @roostweather.bsky.social
Paris, the capital of France, has recorded more days above 40°C this week than during the 147-year period spanning from 1872 to 2019. Historic is an understatement.
📣Calling all Scotland-based climate scientists: Abstract submission for the second annual Scottish Climate Science Network Workshop now open! forms.office.com/e/brhjAJ0WEK
Temperatures have reached 36.4°C at Yeovilton, provisionally making it the hottest June day on record, surpassing both the previous record set yesterday and the longstanding record from 1976 🌡️
