🇺🇦❗️Zelensky proposes a truce in the air, an energy truce, freezing the war on the front line and starting difficult negotiations. He is also ready to meet with Putin, — Podoliak.
Spenser A. Warren
@spenserawarren.bsky.social
Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow, Harvard's Belfer Center | Formerly UC IGCC | PhD, Indiana University | Michigan State Alum | Work on nuclear weapons, emerging tech, Russia, international security | Also football and Star Wars
If that's all Scott Harris can get for the best pitcher in baseball, he needs to be fired.
Tarik Skubal, the most coveted pitcher at this year’s MLB trade deadline, is headed to the Los Angeles Dodgers after they agreed to a trade with the Detroit Tigers on Saturday evening, league sources told The Athletic. More details: nyti.ms/4yUkbnw
With tonight's win, the Tigers are 2.5 games out of the wildcard, with the third-best run differential in the AL. Excited to see how the front office helps this team make a run. .... Ah.
New from 404 Media: Google Earth has introduced an AI feature that lets anyone fabricate completely bullshit satellite images. In our own tests, we added a “bomb blast and crater” to an area of Los Angeles. This is a misinformation time bomb, will 100% be abused www.404media.co/google-earth...
Which Ron Johnson embarrassed Wisconsin worse: Senator Ron Johnson doing his job badly on a daily basis. Michigan running back Ron Johnson who ran for 347 yards and 5 TDs in 1968 against the Badgers?
Check out my new report, which examines Ukraine's battlefield innovations, how Kyiv is reshaping the terms of its defense partnerships, and why military hardware transfers far more readily than the operational experience needed to make it work. tdcenter.org/2026/07/21/u...
The Arsenal of Experience: Ukraine’s Emerging Role as a Security Provider in Europe and Beyond
Transatlantic Dialogue Center (TDC) is a non-governmental and non-partisan think tank that provides high-quality policy advice to private and public clients. The network of our friends and partners in...
tdcenter.org
My paper is out today in PNAS documenting how ICE activity in Trump 2.0 compares to the last 10 years and the mismatch between the action and the rhetoric. Joint with the fabulous @caitlinpatler.bsky.social and @elizabethacox.bsky.social www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Extremist groups are experimenting with AI, just like the rest of us. Islamic State and al-Qaida are harnessing the power of AI to generate more propaganda. theconversation.com/al-qaida-and...
Lots of talk about bombing Pickaxe Mountain, the deep underground facility near Natanz. But not clear U.S. bunker-busting bombs can get it -- which is why it wasn't hit before. Could close the entrance... Otherwise, unless they have a new idea, would likely require ground forces...
Just a reminder that Nixon launched a MASSIVE bombing campaign against Vietnam, dropping more tons of bombs than were used by both sides combined in WWII. Do you remember how quickly that ended the war with a total US victory and solved all the underlying issues? Yeah, neither do I.
Ten killed in Russian attack on drone exhibition near #Kyiv #Europe #Russia #Ukraine
Ten killed in Russian attack on drone exhibition near Kyiv
The event, attended by prominent members of the Ukrainian defence industry, was hit by ballistic missiles in the middle of the day.
bbc.com
My latest chapter with Sumit Ganguly on Chinese and Pakistani nuclear strategies is now out in The Oxford Handbook of Warfare in Asia. We initially drafted the chapter six years ago, luckily we've been able to update it as several critical events have since happened academic.oup.com/edited-volum...
Chinese and Pakistani Nuclear Postures and Strategies
Abstract. This chapter discusses the nuclear politics of China and Pakistan. Each country is modernising and expanding its nuclear arsenal, with China purs
academic.oup.com
Had another discussion of US-Saudi nuclear deal with CBS News this morning. I argued that Congress should use its powers to seek to block the transfer of uranium enrichment to the kingdom, as risky and unnecessary.
Professor @matthew-bunn.bsky.social on the US-Saudi nuclear deal: why enrichment technology raises the stakes — and what Congress needs to know. www.cbsnews.com/video/us-sau...
Useful data on the position of Moldovan parties in parliament regarding Ukraine: a vote ratifying the Convention to set up an int'l claims commission that would ask Russia to pay damages for its invasion. Pro-Russian parties like PCRM and PSRM voted against ratification, ...
Interesting Q: why did this get leaked now? Hypothesis: someone is trying to make the case that Trump can’t stop the war, he has to send in a ground operation—the only plausible way to take out centrifuges deep in Pickaxe Mountain.
Crucial reporting. All of this seems not just plausible, but likely. Again, this is why I simply cannot believe the dismissive attitude toward Iran's large stock of HEU that this war has not sufficiently addressed or casual statements that Iran remains years off a bomb. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
The first article of my PhD has been published!!! In it, I offer a framework for understanding situational awareness today. Using a Norwegian case study, I show how situational awareness has adapted to AI, hybrid competition, and shifting alliances. Open access link here: sjms.nu/articles/10....
Situational Awareness in the Third Nuclear Age | Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies
sjms.nu
The just war principles of disproportionality and indiscrimination
Trump on U.S. troops:
Some thoughts on recent Iranian strikes Many of these targets are still TSSTs (as defined), just not TCTs, given the pre-launch procedures they use, it is pretty obvious that RU supplied an external ISR and situational-awareness layer that Iran integrated into a streamlined F2T2EA process. 1/3
he did the bit
Keir Starmer declared that his “work is done” as he delivered a resignation speech outside Downing Street ahead of Andy Burnham’s arrival at Number 10 as Britain’s seventh prime minister in the past decade. Follow the latest here: ft.trib.al/tpXksiy
The “free” flying palace Trump pressured Qatar to give him, then rushed into service even though it lacks critical safety and security features, is getting costlier by the day. Meanwhile, regular Americans are paying more and more for gas, electricity, food, healthcare—stuff we need just to survive.
Trump Says New Air Force One Will Be Taken Out of Service to Be ‘Maxed Out’ (Gift Article)
The Qatari-donated plane has been under scrutiny over whether it is fitted with sufficient defensive capabilities to adequately protect a U.S. president and others traveling on it.
nytimes.com
That means the aircraft will not equipped with everything deemed essential for presidential security on Air Force One. As a reminder, last year the Air Force secretly diverted nearly $1 billion from the troubled and delayed Sentinel ICBM program in order to pay for the refit of this “free” plane.
"FNPPs could simultaneously harden and sustain Chinese expansionism while posing a transborder radiological threat." New from my friends and colleagues Charlie Prior (RAND) and Dom Brennan (@ucigcc.bsky.social) on the threat of PRC FNPPs in the South China Sea. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/verm...
Vermilion Tide
The Strategic Significance of Floating Nuclear Power Plants
lawfaremedia.org
'The United States struck bridges in Iran, and Tehran responded by hitting a power and desalination plant in Kuwait on Friday, as the two sides risked further escalation by expanding their targets to include infrastructure.' www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Escalation fears mount as US and Iran both attack infrastructure
The United States struck bridges in Iran, and Tehran responded by hitting a power and desalination plant in Kuwait on Friday, as the two sides risked further escalation by expanding their targets to ...
reuters.com
Alright let’s talk about what’s actually in wildfire smoke. Wildfire smoke is a complex aerosol containing fine particulate matter (PM2.5), carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, aldehydes (including formaldehyde), benzene, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)
Fox host Brian Kilmeade dismissed the advice of the network’s own senior medical analyst, Dr. Marc Siegle, by saying there is “not a chance” he will wear a KN95 mask.
We @nclpolitics.bsky.social are advertising for a permanent teaching & research lectureship in Public Policy (deadline 7 Aug) preferably with a focus on international public policy. More details & contacts in the link: jobs.ncl.ac.uk/job/Newcastl...
Lecturer in Public Policy
Lecturer in Public Policy
jobs.ncl.ac.uk
“If Washington continues to needlessly provoke tensions with its Arctic partners, it could spoil the best opportunity yet to build a unified defense strategy that can protect U.S. and allied interests in the region for years to come,” writes Heather Conley.
A Dangerous Game in the Arctic
Trump’s demands could derail progress on allied defense.
foreignaffairs.com
"His goal has been to write 10 books per week, which is the maximum Amazon allows."
Someone Used A.I. to Write an Unauthorized Biography of Me. I Don’t Recommend Reading It. (Gift Article)
Someone used A.I. to write my biography. Thousands more of those books are polluting Amazon. Who is behind all this drivel?
nytimes.com
Here’s a bottom line: Iran, using terms like “existential” & “inviolable red line” has threatened/is threatening to destroy regional H20 & energy infrastructure. Which would have BAD global effects. Highly likely they can & would carry out threat if decided. www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...
Watching Ukr direct democracy work to stop Zelensky from making the mistake of removing a defense minister who's not only turned things around on the front line but is doing it through increased transparency, efficiency, and innovation. Imo, Fedorov is too popular. Ze will have to reappoint him🤞