Dr. William Horne

@wihorne.bsky.social

Writer. Radical. Historian at UMD. PhD in History from GW. In Case of Emergency: https://tinyurl.com/mvmrcuvk. (he/him)

A first year above 2C in the mid-2030s now looks plausible. 0.5C was first passed in 1980, 1.0C in 2010 and 1.5C in 2024. The 15-year trend runs at 0.42C per decade. The 2026 and 2027 points for the current El Nino are estimates. We're not remotely ready!

Line chart titled "A first year above 2 C in the mid-2030s looks increasingly plausible". It shows global mean surface temperature from 1940 to 2050 as the annual anomaly against the 1850 to 1900 baseline, in degrees C. Data is ERA5 from Copernicus, running to 31 July 2026.

A thin gold line shows individual years, wobbling around a thick dark blue smoothed trend. Both sit near 0.2 C through the 1940s to the early 1970s, then climb steadily from the mid-1970s onward.

Three red dots mark the first year each threshold was passed. 0.5 C in 1980, 1.0 C in 2010 and 1.5 C in 2024. Labels beneath note the gap of 30 years between the first two and 14 years between the second and third. Everything above 1.5 C is shaded pink.

Two dashed lines run forward from 2025. A blue line follows the 15-year trend of 0.42 C per decade and reaches 2 C in 2037. A fainter grey line follows the 30-year trend of 0.27 C per decade and reaches 2 C in 2044.

Two orange circles mark estimates for the developing El Niño, at about 1.5 C for 2026 and about 1.7 C for 2027.

The story of the Black American woman bringing home the bacon while Black American men are resigned to their PlayStations is a myth Americans love because it allows them to ignore the discrimination and mistreatment of black women while cackling over a false stereotype that black men are lazy.

A very serious Rural Politico once told me "Dems have to go to farmer meetings! We gotta be where the people are!" I was in fact in a farmer meeting at that very moment! So I live-texted him the meeting. They were complaining that they want indentured workers that they don't have to pay or feed.

Lucas Tieman@lucastieman.bsky.social · 6d ago

There would be more pushback if folks left of center were more serious about outreach. But folks aren't despite the fact that our system does give disproportionate power to rural areas. But instead of taking that as the rules of the game as it exists, and actually organizing, we complain about it.

Reiterating that Musk's literal voter bribery last time was an unambiguous go-directly-to-jail felony, for which people have been successfully prosecuted over vastly smaller amounts. It wasn't just pouring money into a PAC, whatever one thinks of that. It was a black-letter plain-as-day crime.

Yes, Elon Musk’s Vote-Buying Is Against the Law

People have gone to prison for comparable schemes.

thebulwark.com

Matt Novak@paleofuture.bsky.social · 6d ago

Musk got away with his $1 million vote-buying scheme in 2024. Why wouldn't he try something similar this November?

More than 1/3 of working-age adults used a credit card to buy groceries last year & many couldn't pay the balance in full. Americans are ending up with years of high-interest debt for meals they finished long ago. That's the reality of an affordability crisis. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Column | More Americans are buying groceries on credit. Here’s why that’s a problem.

Families are paying for groceries with revolving debt, which then traps them into accumulating years of interest payments for food they’ve long since consumed.

washingtonpost.com

Despite precise instructions from Congress on how billions of dollars in foreign aid should be spent, Trump officials have failed to fund some projects and labeled money meant for global health as “unallocated” to control how it is spent. (Published June)

“A Huge Grab of Power”: Trump Is Defying Congress on Foreign Aid

Lawmakers gave specific orders to Trump officials on foreign aid spending, but officials have refused to follow many of them — likely in violation of the law, experts say. In doing so, they’re escalat...

propublica.org

I've been thinking a lot about humans as "burden," the idea that the systems and institutions created by people can somehow be burdened by those who require them. It's a lot like thinking humans can be "illegal." 1/3

I don't understand how people are not talking more about tariffs. Corporations increased prices b/c of tariffs. The tariffs, in part, were ruled illegal; the corporations got reimbursed, increasing their profit margins, and all we got was the same product for more $$$$$!

Bild

Musk is trying to normalize selective empathy (he’s said that empathy is the West’s “greatest weakness”), because an expanded and inclusive view of humanity is one of the common features of people with moral courage. To recruit ppl to his project, he needs them to think and be small, like him.

People who are suddenly deported to countries they haven’t been to for years — or, in some cases, have NEVER been to — are incredibly vulnerable. We are going to be reading stories like this for years. God have mercy on their three little girls.

Adam Sawyer@adamjst.bsky.social · last wk.

“If immigration hadn't picked up my brother, my sister-in-law would still be alive, and the children wouldn't be going through this sorrow,” he said. “Unfortunately, immigration — the [U.S.] government — doesn't see that. It makes no difference to them.” www.stlpr.org/law-order/20...