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Anton Strezhnev

@astrezh.bsky.social

Assistant Professor, UW-Madison Political Science. http://www.antonstrezhnev.com

1491 Posts4647 Follower3853 Folgt
Daniel de Kadt@dandekadt.bsky.social · 4d ago

I have read this Response to my Comment and have written a Rejoinder, showing three things: 1. The multiverse is many correlated tests. 2. The randomization inference is wrong. 3. The trichotomous moderator reaffirms my point. I also enumerate 7 misleading claims, now in print in the APSR.

A Rejoinder to ‘Still Instrumentally Inclusive’ (Turnbull-Dugarte & López Ortega) Daniel de KadtCornell University, Department of Governmentdekadt@cornell.edu 2026-08-01 Abstract Turnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega’s “Still Instrumentally Inclusive” (the Response) answers my replication (the Comment) of their 2024 American Political Science Review paper (the Article) with, among other things, a multiverse of 2,970 analyses based on eighteen different weighting schemes, randomization inference, and a trichotomous moderator. As I show in this rejoinder, each is undermined by bona fide errors in their code, their writing, and their interpretation. First, the multiverse is just many correlated variants of the same test. This is in large part due to the weighting schemes which suffer multiple problems (some due to code errors, some intrinsic), and are largely correlated variations on one weighting scheme. Second, due to code errors the randomization inference compares a weighted statistic against an unweighted null and, in the two heterogeneity tests, permutes the interaction column rather than treatment assignment column. Every permutation p-value the Response reports is therefore computed against the wrong reference distribution; when they are recomputed correctly, two of the five it reports as significant are no longer so, and they are the two the Response emphasizes. Third, the trichotomous moderator is erroneously described as terciles, but it is in fact based on non-tercile cutpoints. The key subgroup effect reported in the Response thus rests on comparing just thirty high-weight control respondents against thirty-one high-weight treated respondents, and ends up reaffirming my original point that the heterogeneity in study 2 is with respect to weights, and not immigration sentiment as their theory predicts. I close by documenting seven claims in the Response that are untrue or misleading.
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR@cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · last wk.

#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social - Still Instrumentally Inclusive - https://cup.org/4bhrhsp "Do individuals in Western democracies shift their views on LGBT+ inclusion when exposed to opposition from Muslim out-groups?" - @turnbulldugarte.com & @bertous.bsky.social #FirstView

Banner with the hashtag #OpenAccess on a green background and the text "American Political Science Review" on a blue background below.
Chris Kenny, PhD@chriskenny.bsky.social · 2w ago

Thrilled to share that I received POLMETH's Statistical Software Award for 2026 for the #rstats package geomander. It's a performant toolkit for working with spatial data, especially election and demographic data. Learn more about the package at christophertkenny.com/geomander/

Geographic Tools for Studying Gerrymandering

A compilation of tools to complete common tasks for studying gerrymandering. This focuses on the geographic tool side of common problems, such as linking different levels of spatial units or estimatin...

christophertkenny.com

Gautam Kamath@gautamkamath.com · 2w ago

Radical proposal: if you want to submit your work for review by other humans, it must first be publicly and permanently posted somewhere with your name on it.

Karthik Sankaran@rajakorman.bsky.social · last mo.

Btw, have you all considered becoming F1 fans? (I’m not but I really should be). It is a competition between corporations with complicated cross-border supply chains where the nationality of the driver often has nothing to do with the notional national identity of the competing corporations!!!

Jeffrey Wooldridge@jmwooldridge.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Hi All. Perhaps something useful from me. I'd like to announce that drlate, a Stata module for doubly robust estimation of the local average treatment effect (LATE) and the local average treatment effect on the treated (LATT), is now available in SSC.

Doubly Robust Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects Using Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment

We revisit the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect (LATE) and the local average treatment effect on the treated (LATT) when control variables are available, either to render the i...

arxiv.org

Nick Davis@ntd.bsky.social · 2mo ago

it low key tickles me that folks have been really bad about citation practices wrt packages — much less understanding what those packages do — and yet LLMs spook everyone out. sirs, did you know how the black box magic package worked in ye olde days? no? ahh, well, see…

Quantian@quantian.bsky.social · 3mo ago

It might seem impressive that AI solved an ope problem in pure math, but it could never conquer the heights of applied math, where we rely on the techniques of: trying to do integration by parts, trying to do a Taylor expansion, trying to do an integral transform, or giving up and killing ourselves.

Topher Florence@topherflorence.bsky.social · 3mo ago

a movie that is functionally a hyper compressed, slightly more expensive season of a television show that is half kinda cute and half terrible whose legacy is forever marred by a right wing dipshit co-star based on a 20th century fox intellectual property? close enough, welcome back Serenity

DiscussingFilm@discussingfilm.net · 3mo ago

‘THE MANDALORIAN AND GROGU’ debuts at 58% on Rotten Tomatoes. • First Star Wars movie in 7 years. Read our review: bit.ly/MandoDF