Ben Moran
@benmoran.bsky.social
Intensivist/Anaesthetist. Novice Researcher & Statistician. PhD Cand. Chronic Pain after ICU & Longitudinal Causal Inference. Bayes-curious. #rstats #T1DM
In this special episode of Learning Bayesian Statistics, @alex-andorra.bsky.social is joined by Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, and Richard McElreath to discuss Bayesian Workflow. From simulation and hierarchical pooling to causal inference, there’s a lot to unpack 🎧 lnkd.in/geX2QkxV #Bayesian
Bayesian Workflow - Gelman, Vehtari & McElreath
Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, and Richard McElreath discuss their new book on Bayesian workflow, reverse Bayes and hierarchical pooling.
learnbayesstats.com
Editors should not accept for publication papers using the phrase «real world evidence». It’s a marketing term, to embellish non-causal studies. #metasci #stats #cardiosky www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/...
Stopping Oral Anticoagulation After Catheter Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With High Risk of Stroke: STOP‐OAC Study | Journal of the American Heart Association
ahajournals.org
All four books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - Bayesian Workflow at avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... Links to other three books are in the quoted post 👇 (too many books to fit in one post!)
Bayesian Workflow book: Website – Bayesian Workflow book
Website for the Bayesian Workflow book by Gelman, Vehtari, McElreath, et al. — case studies, code, and exercises in R and Stan.
avehtari.github.io
Aki Vehtari@avehtari.bsky.social · 2y agoAll three books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - #Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd ed (aka BDA3) at stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/ - #Regression and Other Stories at avehtari.github.io/ROS-Examples/ - Active Statistics at avehtari.github.io/ActiveStatis...
The Statistical Society of Australia has a new President... No, it's not Randy the greyhound (although he would've done a fine job) It's me! If you want to know a little more about me, I have the blog post just for you :) benharrap.com/post/2026-08... #statssky #datascience
Get to know the new President of the Statistical Society of Australia (it’s me) – Ben Harrap
benharrap.com
I, for one, welcome my new overlord
Ben Harrap@bharrap.bsky.social · 3w agoThe Statistical Society of Australia has a new President... No, it's not Randy the greyhound (although he would've done a fine job) It's me! If you want to know a little more about me, I have the blog post just for you :) benharrap.com/post/2026-08... #statssky #datascience
we have got to put that into a causal inference lecture
Museum of Twitter@museum-of-twitter.bsky.social · 4w ago
New blog post in which we discover the secret to immortality: accounting errors. www.the100.ci/2026/08/08/m...
My Immortal Time Bias
Preamble: This shortie is my attempt to come up with an example that makes the problem underlying immortal time bias as obvious as possible. In Japan, people who reach the age of 100 are handed a co...
the100.ci
New blog post! Odds ratios are...a bit weird. Here I explain two problems (interpretation, non-collapsibility) and provide some simple recommendations for improved reporting. www.the100.ci/2026/07/30/r...
Reviewer notes: Odds ratios are really odd
When psychological researchers investigate binary outcomes, they routinely report odds ratios to quantify the strength of an effect or an association. This is quite understandable given that psycholog...
the100.ci
Thank you for your kind words 2 responses: 1/ Source control is good for patients with sepsis, so if we can find the right patients, this could be more than just marginal for those patients 2/ ICU care in general is a game of inches; much of excellence is just cumulating marginal benefits, right?
You know you’re getting old when the consultants look like interns!
💉Josh Rubin, MD@drsandman11.medsky.social · last mo.Saw a patient who was 46 years old and I checked their birthdate and it was 1980 and I thought “that can’t be right” Fuck.
Ha! These young ones with their gaming! They can’t even spell estimate properly!
Ben Harrap@bharrap.bsky.social · last mo.Has anyone made a gamified version of either drawing DAGs or selecting the correct covariate set from a DAG for the estimand of interest? I'm thinking of something like ggplot battles www.ggplotbattles.dev #rstats
Our latest blog is out: The Nothing-to-Lose Fallacy https://criticalcarereviews.com/2026/the-nothing-to-lose-fallacy
Holy shit!!!!! I was today years when I learned…
June Blackwell 🏳️⚧️@junipercapita.bsky.social · 4mo agoDie Hard
I fear this is a losing battle, but I'm trying very hard to avoid using the term "AI". a word that can refer to anything from LLMs/GenAI through to control systems and prediction models through to linear regression has no useful meaning at all
happy pi approximation day (22/7) to all those who celebrate
Modelling makes a difference, but the problem here starts with including an SMD of >2. That sounds like an error, and probably is an error or fraud. Trustworthiness assessment www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1... would be in order @ianhussey.mmmdata.io
INSPECT-SR: a tool for assessing trustworthiness of randomised controlled trials
Precis The integrity of evidence synthesis is threatened by problematic randomised controlled trials (RCTs). These are RCTs where there are serious concerns about the trustworthiness of the data or fi...
medrxiv.org
I have just resigned from the board of "Statistics and Computing", along with 17 other Associate Editors. This was a difficult decision: this great journal has published many tremendous articles under the leadership of EiC Ajay Jasra, and before him David Hand, Gilles Celeux, and Mark Girolami.
This one I find really interesting ever since one of the American ED physicians introduced me to the idea of the “physiologically difficult”airway. An AFOI negates precipitous falls in BP and CVS collapse. If. You know what you’re doing 🤔 #ansky
British Journal of Anaesthesia@bjajournals.bsky.social · 2mo agoIn this single centre study, Masuda et al show a reduction in peri-intubation events with awake intubation in ICU compared with general anaesthesia https://www.bjanaesthesia.org/article/S0007-0912(26)00185-6/fulltext
it all comes back to the age-old question: WHat's Your Fucking Estimand, Motherfucker
I am giving away a free copy of the #BayesianWorkflow book by @statmodeling.bsky.social, @avehtari.bsky.social, @rmcelreath.bsky.social et al!! Please like, repost, and follow to enter. I will randomly draw the winner next Weds July 8. 😀 routledge.com/9780367490140 #RStats #DataScience #Bayesian
This paper is worth it for table 1 alone. 👏 @sabinehoffmann11.bsky.social @boulesteixlaure.bsky.social et al onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
When to Adjust for Multiple Testing: A Unifying Guiding Principle
Most original articles published in the medical literature report the results of multiple statistical tests. In a few simple cases, there is agreement on whether to adjust for the number of performed...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
This is really cool!!!
Jem Arnold@jemarnold.bsky.social · 2mo agoHow long does it take for blood to make a full round-trip around the entire body during exercise? 🫁🫀🔁🦵 Only 10-sec! That’s way faster than I intuitively would have expected But we’re just reproducing what’s been known for the last century👇 #science #medicine #rstats #datavis
Going to start explaining heated rivalry to Australians by saying imagine if Shane Warne and Mike Gatting had also somehow been in a secret relationship when the ball of the century happened
The standard random-effects model in meta-analysis assumes that the amount of heterogeneity is homoscedastic. This assumption may not be true. I derived and examined various tests for heteroscedastic heterogeneity. See osf.io/cavhy for a preprint describing these methods. #MetaAnalysis #RStats
OSF
osf.io
