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Erich Fischer

@erichfischer.bsky.social

Climate scientist investigating weather and climate extremes, professor at ETH Zurich (@ethzurich.bsky.social), fascinated by weather and climate, IPCC AR6 lead author

69 Posts5997 Follower339 Folgt
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 2w ago

Plausible record-shattering heat extremes Several recent forecast cycles have shown the possibility of >41°C in northern Switzerland and southern Germany during the first week of August. For many Swiss stations, this would exceed the current all-time record by 2–4°C.

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MetJam@metjam.co.uk · last mo.

A minimum temperature of 22.3ºC at Brize Norton is a new highest minimum June record for the station by OVER 3ºC and an all-time station record by 1.3ºC (previous was 21.0ºC on 20th July 2016). An incredible margin to break the station records by; records began there in 1968.

Spaghetti chart showing Brize Norton daily minimum temperatures for every day of the year from 1968 to 2026. Faint grey lines trace 58 years of historical data, forming a seasonal cycle from around -5°C in winter to a summer peak of roughly 15°C. A dashed red horizontal line marks the previous June minimum temperature record of 19.1°C, set on 28 June 2025. A thick red line shows 2026's observed minimum temperatures, tracking within the historical range through winter and spring before climbing sharply in late June, well above the entire historical envelope at that point in the year. A large bold number, '22.3°C', sits at the top of the chart with its base resting on the 20°C gridline, connected by an arrow to the peak of the red line on 24 June 2026. A subtitle beneath states this is a new all-time minimum temperature record for the station, beaten for the second consecutive June running
Ed Hawkins@edhawkins.org · last mo.

We recreated the legendary heatwave of summer 1976 in today’s climate… …and it is essentially the same as the weather forecast for this week, on the 50th anniversary. We look set to smash the June 1976 temperature record by 3°C. Written with Hayley Fowler: theconversation.com/we-recreated...

We recreated the legendary heatwave summer of 1976 in today’s climate – here’s what we found

For 15 consecutive days, temperatures were over 32°C. Today, heatwaves are 3°C or 4°C hotter.

theconversation.com

Ed Hawkins@edhawkins.org · 2mo ago

A 40°C in the forecast for Reading now on Wednesday. Still rather uncertain on the exact magnitude, but 3 consecutive days breaking the previous all-time record for Reading (37.6°C) is possible.

MetJam@metjam.co.uk · 2mo ago

This is what the Met Office app forecast for Reading looks like in terms of where it sits in the climatological record, and it's safe to say it obliterates anything seen before it - do believe it's a bit too enthusiastic with its temperatures but still astounding.

Sam Burgess@oceanterra.org · last mo.

The UK temperature record that has held since 1976 of 35.6 degrees, is forecast to be 38-40 degrees in June 2026. Future heatwaves will be more intense in an even warmer world. Europeans are exposed to more heat stress than ever before due to continued burning of fossil fuels

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Mika Rantanen@mikarantane.bsky.social · last mo.

ECMWF weekly mean temperature anomaly shows the highest category (>10°C above normal) over France this week. Typically, these colors appear only during winter warm spells, when temperature variability is the largest. Seeing them in mid-summer says a lot about the intensity of this heatwave.

2 m temperature weekly mean anomaly from ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast. The colors are red in Europe, with > 10 °C above normal over France.
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · last mo.

An amazing workshop with plenty of novel and exciting new research. Very timely research, given the ongoing heatwave. Thank you very much @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, @gabihegerl.bsky.social and Jack Scheff for organizing it.

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Mike Byrne@drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Excited to host the Land-Climate Workshop @uniofstandrews.bsky.social this week! Looking forward to ~40 talks + posters on cutting-edge research questions spanning wildfires, drought, freshwater availability, monsoons, extreme weather and much more! @earthscista.bsky.social @gabihegerl.bsky.social

World Weather Attribution@wwattribution.bsky.social · 3mo ago

NEW: Players and fans face increased heat danger at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, since USA '94. Our results show that from Miami to Kansas City, climate change is increasing the risk of playing the World Cup in much of the northern hemisphere during summer. (1/2)

Pedram Hassanzadeh@pedramh.bsky.social · last yr.

Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan extremes? We report @pnas.org that the answer is NO for global gray swans, YES for regional ones: AI models can't extrapolate from weaker events but can learn from similar events in other regions during training! doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones? | PNAS

Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI wea...

doi.org

John Kennedy@micefearboggis.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Almost-global-average sea-surface temperatures are creeping up to record levels again and we’re still in La Niña (according to NOAA). There’s some uncertainty though as you can see from these two datasets..

Graph of daily sea surface temperature averaged from 60°S to 60°N. 2026 has just edged into record territory. Data from NOAA OISST v2.1Graph of daily sea surface temperature averaged from 60°S to 60°N. 2026 has just edged into record territory. Data from ERA5.
Paulo Ceppi@pauloceppi.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Cloudiness has been declining globally for the last two decades. Why is this and how does it matter for global warming? Read our new article to find out! 👇 doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4153-2026 And see the @carbonbrief.org post summarising the key findings buff.ly/oLxKacO

Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations

Abstract. From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m−2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend...

doi.org

Carbon Brief@carbonbrief.org · 4mo ago

Guest post: How declining cloudiness is accelerating global warming ✍️ By @pauloceppi.bsky.social Read this new article here ➡️ buff.ly/oLxKacO

Cumulus clouds over the ocean. Credit: Felipe Sanchez / Alamy Stock Photo.
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Excellent summary on our study in @nature.com by @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org (@carbonbrief.org) with comments from Rowan Sutton, Karen McKinnon and @robertvautard.bsky.social www.carbonbrief.org/limiting-glo...

Limiting global warming to 2C would not ‘rule out’ extreme impacts - Carbon Brief

Limiting warming to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures may not be enough to prevent “extreme global climate outcomes”.

carbonbrief.org

Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Extreme global climate outcomes are possible even at 2°C of warming In our new Nature study led by @bevacquae.bsky.social with Jakob Zscheischler and @janasillmann.bsky.social, we show that even moderate warming of 2°C could lead to extreme outcomes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Extreme global climate outcomes are possible even at 2°C of warming In our new Nature study led by @bevacquae.bsky.social with Jakob Zscheischler and @janasillmann.bsky.social, we show that even moderate warming of 2°C could lead to extreme outcomes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - Nature

Extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming and may turn out to be more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming.

nature.com

Robert Rohde@rarohde.bsky.social · 5mo ago

The current heatwave in the US Southwest is utterly destroying many records for this time of year. Phoenix, Arizona has ~90 years of daily temperature data, and yet recent temperatures beat the previous March record by 5 °F (2.8 °C), and would actually tie the record for April.

Plot wrapping daily maximum temperature history for Phoenix, Arizona for every year since 1933, and showing the anomalously high temperatures in 2026.
Zack Labe@zacklabe.com · 5mo ago

Honestly, this historic heat dome across the West is really hard to put into words for me. Temperatures over 110°F (43°C) in March, shattering all-time monthly records on multiple consecutive days, and not just by a little. ➡️ I can confirm this is human-caused climate change. polarwx.com/models/

Map of the lower 48 United States showing 0.25° GFS run from 18z on 20 March 2026. The variable is the 500 hPa geopotential height percentile rank considering ERA5. There is a record-breaking ridge across the Western U.S.
Peter Thorne@peterthorne.bsky.social · 6mo ago

New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.

How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?

Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p...

essd.copernicus.org

Tim Osborn@timosbornclim.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Most 2025 global temperatures are now out (degrees C above 1850-1900 baseline) 1.41 HadCRUT5 1.44 Berkeley 1.46 JRA-3Q 1.47 Copernicus 1.53 DCENT-I NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC.

Multi-dataset comparison of global temperatures from 1850-2025, with 2025 values highlighted in a separate panel for each individual dataset. Baseline is a combination of 1850-1900 means.