Dean Eckles

@eckles.bsky.social

networks, contagion, causality faculty at MIT

Just an enormous difference in Russian support for the war when comparing direct question estimates with experiments from list experiments. Also, peep those CIs! sensitivity bias has to be HUGE (which it apparently is in this case) to be detected with Direct - List

Georgy Tarasenko@tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · last wk.

Every wave after that splits. Direct support holds at ~75%. Indirect support drops to 44–58%. The gap runs from 16 to 30 percentage points.

Imagine that in pre-publication peer review, the reliability of a 3-reviewer composite is .70. The journal accepts the top 10% of papers according to average review score. What is the reliability of the original reviewers in the subset of published papers? (Answer in alt text)

The reliability coefficient is -.77. No, the negative sign is not a typo.

This episode is interesting as it's about a research group explicitly trying dozens to hundreds of quasi experiments, progressing only with the ones that "work", backing them up with a bunch of robustness tests, and then extrapolating a lot from the results. podcastaddict.com/freakonomics...

Freakonomics Radio - 668. Do Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny Have Blood on Their Hands?

Listen to Freakonomics Radio - 668. Do Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny Have Blood on Their Hands? by Freakonomics Radio + Stitcher on Podcast Addict. As one researcher told us: “We’ve engineered a world wh...

podcastaddict.com

This gorgeous essay from the social-media-less Lily Hu is everything: on what it means to "do" philosophy amidst pressure to automate it (with lessons that travel much more broadly). Rhymes with brilliant insights from @biblioracle.bsky.social @janerosenzweig.bsky.social Ted Chiang & others

Lily Hu · Un-Doing Philosophy

Analytic philosophers in the United States are increasingly embracing AI, both by taking advisory positions at tech companies and by using large language models for their own research and writing. Som...

blnreview.de

The correlation coefficient is not a proper scoring rule. An agent who ranks models by correlation can be beaten by an infinite class of alternative rules. Here's a 2007 article on proper scoring rules: sites.stat.washington.edu/raftery/Rese...

This skeet will self destruct@pardoguerra.bsky.social · 4w ago

This is quite the finding for a device thats just a plagiarism machine, or whatever we are calling it this week. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

I have just resigned from the board of "Statistics and Computing", along with 17 other Associate Editors. This was a difficult decision: this great journal has published many tremendous articles under the leadership of EiC Ajay Jasra, and before him David Hand, Gilles Celeux, and Mark Girolami.

Whether or not radicalization is a good replacement, the political science concept of polarization is normatively dubious, descriptively thin and causally... eh, let's not even go there. I know you just got a big grant to study it but I'm sure they'll let you spend the money on something more useful

Petter Törnberg@pettertornberg.com · 4w ago

‘Polarization’ has become the master concept for diagnosing our current democratic crisis. But this is not polarization. It is the radicalization of the political right. By misdiagnosing it, we risk becoming complicit in the crisis. 🧵 Just out in Perspectives on Politics doi.org/10.1017/S153...

*sharing a screenshot from an article that cites another article quoting one (1) “New York financier” who says his firm prefers humanities grads to STEM* this is because the humanities teaches you critical thinking

It's more than a little depressing how many academics I admire in other contexts keep citing an understanding of LLMs that hasn't been current since LLMs were wedded to code, webfetch, and search years ago.

conputer dipshit@davidcrespo.bsky.social · last mo.

starting to think this standard characterization is just false, not in a subtle way but in the bare and straightforward way “it‘s raining” is false when it’s not raining www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/o...

These scary — OK, OK, funny — incidents aren’t the result of coding errors. They’re the result of an essential, inescapable fact about the artificial intelligence that has become so common in so many aspects of our daily lives: Large language models are not reasoning machines. They’re plausibility engines. It’s not just that they don’t test their outputs to make sure they’re correct or logical, or that they fail to do so in certain instances. They can’t, and they’ll never be able to on their own. They can only assess which answers are probable, based on the data on which the models have been trained. And that holds true whether they’re trained on the full breadth of human output or only on peer-reviewed scientific articles. It’s baked into the way they operate.

I'm reminded when I see this much of our perception of the safety of hotels vs cruises is based on the fact that cruises must publicly report illness and hotels have no such requirement. Part of a larger point that most of our view of modern life is formed by what story is easier to assemble.

Forbes@forbes.com · last mo.

The norovirus outbreak comes just months after the much more deadly hantavirus spread through a Dutch-flagged cruise ship sailing through the South Atlantic.

First paper from my grad student, @d-spinozamartin.bsky.social, who is also new to Bluesky!

Daniel Spinoza-Martín@d-spinozamartin.bsky.social · last mo.

In a new paper out in @cognitionjournal.bsky.social, @gordpennycook.bsky.social and I argue the classic view that System 2 spontaneously corrects System 1 is flawed. We provide evidence that S2 is instead triggered by conflict between competing S1 intuitions www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...