What is truly "shocking" about the polling miss in Michigan is that it is completely average for a primary "The expected error on the margin between two primary candidates in a race for governor or U.S. Senate is a whopping 13.0 points." blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/2026-texas...

Do we really know who's leading the Texas Senate races?

Primary polls have historically been rather unreliable, and a surge in new primary voters means turnout assumptions matter more than usual

blog.fiftyplusone.news

|horses|@chemotaxis.bsky.social · 13h ago

Polling is like really fucked. Strikes me as a huge problem honestly.

Record heatwave spreads across Korean peninsula, prompting emergency response reut.rs/4bq66Ez

Record heatwave spreads across Korean peninsula, prompting emergency response

A record heatwave is gripping the Korean peninsula, sending temperatures soaring across South Korea and North Korea as authorities expand emergency measures and residents seek relief in cooling shelters, beaches and water parks.

reut.rs

Historian of abolition here 💯Garrison always called it the slaveholders rebellion, that’s the correct term. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/02/o...

Opinion | The ‘Civil War’ Is a Lie. Let’s Call It the ‘Slaveholders’ Rebellion’ Again. (Gift Article)

To face our own history, we must be honest about it.

nytimes.com

I worked for New York’s largest medical center at the start of the pandemic. There were morgue trucks on the streets. They set up emergency medical tents in Central Park. Healthcare worker colleagues died. It is horrific that RFK Jr is on national TV lying that ICUs were empty.

I love Talarico and hope he wins. But he’s already raised $70M On the flipside, control of critical state legislatures will come down to seats where candidates raise 0.1% of that. I’ve researched the highest leverage swing district candidates you should donate to secure.actblue.com/donate/donat...

Donate to the candidates on the front lines of the fight against MAGA gerrymandering

These are anti-MAGA state candidates in *extremely* close races

secure.actblue.com

Humans are notoriously bad at telling the difference between "bad thing didn't happen to me because I minimized the risk" and "bad thing didn't happen to me therefore the risk was minimal" and Republicans prey on that.

Peter@notalawyer.bsky.social · 3d ago

it’s pretty obvious that a lot of people remember that COVID lockdowns were unpleasant and from there just extrapolate that they were therefore bad policy

I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.

bsky.app/profile/devi...

Mark Sumner 🌒@devilstower.bsky.social · 3d ago

This is far from the first time Trump was caught money laundering. In 2015, his casinos were fined $10 million for over a hundred instances of money laundering going back to at least 2003, many involving Russian oligarchs.

The questions are no longer about whether Talarico is ahead and can he win. The answers are clearly yes and yes. Even Fox News now has him over 50%. The question is whether Texas Republicans can successfully suppress enough votes to swing the election. They are taking active measures to do so now.

I don't know how you look at everything Trump's been doing to mess with the election and think anything other than that he's trying to rig it. But whether he will succeed is a different matter, as Bob Kuttner reports. prospect.org/2026/07/28/t...

Yes, Trump Will Attempt a Coup - The American Prospect

If we are vigilant, he won’t pull it off.

prospect.org

Scientists had warned us. Climate change doesn't just hurt nature, it also hurts capital. You can continue to deny it or ignore acting on it, only if you can afford to pay for the growing damages. 🎁🔗 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Heat Pushes Rhine Toward 36-Year Low in Risk to Energy Supplies

The Rhine River’s water levels risk dropping to an unprecedented low as heat waves grip Europe, creating a bottleneck for the delivery of coal and fuels inland while raising shipping costs.

bloomberg.com

With its apparent plans to remake the census, the Trump administration "could steal congressional seats and redirect potentially hundreds of billions of federal dollars." www.thebulwark.com/p/inside-tru...

Inside Trump’s Stealth Trick to Rig the Census—and Congress

The administration’s latest power grab is disguised as boring technical guidance.

thebulwark.com

This week's YouGov/Economist poll gives Donald Trump a net approval of -28. Lowest of any YouGov/Economist presidential approval since the poll began in 2009

New Texas Senate poll: 🔵 James Talarico 45% 🔴 Ken Paxton 40% Texas Public Opinion Research - 7/15-17

If Trump wasn't forcing the National Guard to do clown show duty in Washington, DC, and elsewhere, they could be helping to combat the wildfires in Oregon and elsewhere www.koin.com/news/portlan...

‘Definitely a stressful time’: Statewide wildfires pull resources from Portland and all over Oregon

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — Crews from across Oregon are battling 34 large wildfires burning in all corners of the state. Officials say more than 1.3 million acres have burned so far. Several new fires…

koin.com

🔥 Firefighters in France and Spain rushed to contain the worst wildfires in living memory Tuesday, seizing crucial hours before the arrival of another wave of searing temperatures. [1/3] ➡️ u.afp.com/SrEK

Applications are open for SFI's 2027 Complexity Postdoctoral Fellowships. SFI is looking for recent Ph.D. graduates with strong quantitative and computational skills who want to pursue independent, transdisciplinary research. Deadline: September 30, 2026 Apply: santafe.edu/sfifellowship

Global warming could briefly reach 2C — the upper bound set by countries in the Paris Agreement — as a strong El Niño roils the world's weather.

El Niño May Push Global Warming to 2C or Higher in the Short Term

There’s a 35% chance that the average temperature will hit 2C above pre-industrial levels for one month next year, projections show.

bloom.bg

Honduras ex-President Hernandez to return home after Trump pardon reut.rs/44LdWVw

Honduras ex-President Hernandez to return home after Trump pardon

Former Honduran President Juan ​Orlando Hernandez is set to return to Honduras on Sunday, eight months after U.S. President ‌Donald Trump pardoned him while he was serving a 45-year U.S. prison sentence for drug and arms trafficking.

reut.rs

Why is this murderer still walking free? www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/...

ICE officer linked to Maine shooting was deemed not credible in court last year

State and local officials are rebutting David Brouillette’s claims in court about losing his driver’s license and being employed as a local officer.

washingtonpost.com

Ask E Jean review – Trump survivor turns out to be tougher than he thought as she fights on

Ask E Jean review – Trump survivor turns out to be tougher than he thought as she fights on

Ivy Meeropol’s engrossing film follows former star columnist E Jean Carroll, now in her 80s, battles through an unfinished series of legal disputes

theguardian.com

Last month, the Trump administration committed another 98 atrocities. In all, that makes 1,112 cruelties, corruptions, and crimes since January 2025. #LestWeForgetTheHorrors

Lest We Forget the Horrors: An Unending Catalog of Trump’s Cruelties, Collusions, Corruptions, and Crimes: June 2026: Atrocities 1014-1112

Add another whopping ninety-eight instances of cruelty, collusion, corruption, and crime to the list.

buff.ly

Better plan: End the damned dinner WHCA spectacle has long been embarrassment. NYT said No, starting in 2017. PBS Frontline did WHCA take-down (based on my 'Breaking the News') *30 years* ago AND THAT WAS BEFORE outright war from Trump: Lies, subpoenas, FCC strong-arm, racist insults Just Say No

Scott MacFarlane@macfarlanenews.bsky.social · 2w ago

NEW: 500+ journalists formally ask White House Correspondents Assoc. "to publicly pledge that it will fight back against the Trump Admin's assault on press freedom" at its dinner with Trump on Friday "Attacks on journalists and press freedom have become even more egregious"

Chile declares state of emergency over deadly rainfall. Since last week, rain has lashed the arid northern regions of Coquimbo and Atacama, where such intense levels of precipitation are highly unusual. At least 10 people have died u.afp.com/Srxk

Japanese drugmaker Takeda's QDENGA becomes first dengue vaccine approved in India reut.rs/4vCol0I

Japanese drugmaker Takeda's QDENGA becomes first dengue vaccine approved in India

Japan's Takeda Pharmaceutical's dengue vaccine QDENGA has been approved by India's drug regulator, ​making it the first dengue vaccine to be ‌approved in the country, the company's unit said on Monday.

reut.rs

Trump’s Homeland Security chief threatens election officials with prison

Trump’s Homeland Security chief threatens election officials with prison

Markwayne Mullin repeats Trump’s unsubstantiated claims on security of US elections as president seeks to change election policies ahead of midterms

irishtimes.com

Trump / Miller are now limiting student visas to 4 years. PhD programs typically run 5-6 years in many disciplines.

Trump administration tightens visa rules for foreign students

Students will need federal permission to stay longer than four years in the US and universities will lose the power to extend visas.

bbc.com

Carl T. Bergstrom@carlbergstrom.com · 11mo ago

Every single day of this administration, I have thought of my late professor Joe Nye and his work on soft power. Every single day of this administration, Trump finds a new way to hemorrhage soft power from a country that once had more to spare than any in the world.

When you die, your name is not automatically and magically removed from voter rolls. This is so flimsy when you stop and think about it for five seconds. Of course there are dead people on voter rolls ... but they don't vote. Because they're dead!

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 3w ago

Mullin claims DHS will “scrub all election records” and asserts that dead people are voting

This is election interference.

I am not a climate scientist but when I was a kid the number of times we couldn’t go outside because of Canadian wildfire smoke was zero times