@zaryema.bsky.social

Humanitarian, traveler, and history nerd, covering Ukraine, Afghanistan, and the MENA region for work. Current historical obsession is reading about / visiting the former border towns of the Österreich. @zaryema22 on instagram

Friday morning, I was gardening when I checked my phone. A request had gone out for help. For 25+ hours, ICE had been laying siege to a quiet neighborhood in Frederick, MD. Community members were afraid, some didn’t want to leave their homes. ICE vehicles seemed to be lurking on every corner.

ICE vehicle - black Nissan Maxima with plate cover - posted up in a spot that also serves as an elementary school bus stop. Another ICE vehicle, black Dodge Durango, lurking around the community. Two more ICE vehicles - black Dodge Durango and a white SUV, unclear on make, model - on a quiet residential street, being quietly creepy. Note that the white SUV has its plate covered. Yet another ICE vehicle. Black Nissan Pathfinder. They were all over the neighborhood.

I’ve been in aid, am currently unemployed because the sector has essentially collapsed, and know a ton of people who are still clinging on in aid - I really cannot express in words the scale of the human suffering that Musk destroying USAID has unleashed. So yes, I have some strong opinions on that.

Yeah so we're demanding shit about minority language rights and national sovereignty over trade agreements while also funding an astroturfed separatist movement right on our border No parallels here, no reason to be alarmed, stop being such a hysterical lib obsessed with Russia

Sam (ABeardedPanda)@abeardedpanda.bsky.social · 8mo ago

There are a lot of you who seem to be overly concerned about people being rude to you when the people in question are a bit miffed that we're upending the global order and currently threatening to invade their country using a playbook from 12 years ago that is still currently ongoing

On the one hand, I shouldn't wish my country ill. On the other hand, Canada's grandfathers bled with my grandfathers fighting the Nazis. When we were attacked on 9/11, we asked Canada to send their sons and they bled with our troops in Afghanistan. To betray that bond - we'll deserve what we get.

Mark Carney@mark-carney.bsky.social · 2w ago

Late last evening I instructed our negotiators to return to Ottawa. We cannot accept what the U.S. has offered, and we will not give what they have asked.

I will never forgive Trump's quislings for treating our allies worse than our enemies. Every one of these stunts is a betrayal. We *had* a good trade deal with Canada, it was called NAFTA. Trump replaced it with...a basically identical deal (USMCA) and now tore that up too. Infuriating.

Thomas Seal@twseal.bsky.social · 2w ago

US-Canada Trade Talks Collapse, Triggering Trump’s 50% Tariffs (Bloomberg) -- An agreement between the US and Canada to avert a fresh round of tariffs fell apart at the last minute Tariffs kick in 12:01 a.m. EST

>imperial concubine controls national security >court eunuchs are ceaselessly fighting for internal influence >the viziers are scheming over who replaces the leader >the leader fritters away all his time repeatedly replacing the grass on the lawn >the palace debt grows greater by the day

Bild

In short, I think people should not immediately assume the US military is a broken sword because it has not slain the Iranian Regime. Even a good sword cannot cut if it is wielded by an imbecile. At the same time, US military laurel-resting-time is pretty clearly over (and has been for a while).

>wake up >global security architecture has degraded further >go to sleep >global security architecture has degraded further >wake up >global security architecture has degraded further >go to sleep >global security architecture has degraded further

Bild

This, I think, is the fundamental historical burden of our time: we have at last achieved power to reshape our world to our liking and also to destroy ourselves and we must now rise above part of our nature in order to provide a future for generations to come, to buy time for evolution to catch up.

New Republican gerrymanders have shifted Trump’s margin in the median House seat from 3.1 points to 5.2. By 2028, the GOP could make it 8.5 and the House unwinnable for Dems except in huge wave elections. But if Dems respond in all these states, they could undo practically the entire GOP advantage

Table titled "Median Congressional District: D-Minus-R Presidential Margin" from The Downballot. Compares the median congressional district's Democratic-minus-Republican presidential margin across five redistricting scenarios, showing both 2024 and 2020 presidential results.

National popular vote (no specific district): 2024 margin −1.5 (R-favoring); 2020 margin +4.5 (D-favoring).

2024 actual map: Median district AZ-01, 2024 margin −3.1; median district VA-02, 2020 margin +1.9.

2026 actual map: Median district PA-10, 2024 margin −5.2; median district FL-27, 2020 margin −0.2.

2028 potential map, new GOP maps only: Median district PA-08, 2024 margin −8.5; median district FL-14, 2020 margin −2.8.

2028 potential map, new maps from both parties: Median district NM-02, 2024 margin −1.8; median district KS-03, 2020 margin +4.5.

Cells are color-coded: red shading for negative (R-favoring) margins, blue shading for positive (D-favoring) margins, with deeper shading indicating larger margins. The GOP-only 2028 map produces the most Republican-skewed median district under 2024 results (−8.5), while the scenario where Democrats respond in 2028 produces results closest to the national popular vote.
Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 4mo ago

NEW 🧵: Here's how Dems could redraw 9 congressional maps by 2028 & target more than 20 GOP seats. The GOP tried to rig the national map in 2026, & Dems had few ways to respond. But Dems could fully counteract them by 2028. We have example maps for each state www.the-downballot.com/p/how-democr...

Map of states where Democrats may have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps by 2028 to target seats currently held by Republicans. They could target Republicans in:

Colorado: 3
Illinois: 1
Maryland: 1
Minnesota: 2
New Jersey: 2
New York: 4
Oregon: 1
Virginia: 4
Wisconsin: 3
Total: 21

The nominal strategic purpose of the U.S. Navy is to ensure global freedom of navigation to guarantee stable global trade. It has not only not done that, the United States instigated the conflict which undid it. This is known in foreign policy analysis as a “whoopsie doodles.”

@lastpositivist.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Genuine question: is there any way to understand the "pause" on Operation Freedom besides an unambiguous defeat for the US navy? I am actually shocked at how badly the US is losing this war.

The GOP entered this redistricting under the rather childish delusion they were going to gerrymander, and nobody would gerrymander them. In TX, MO, and a half dozen other states, they put their rather naive theory into operation. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind

On consideration, I think if the deal stands along the lines that have been reported, with Iran continuing to extract its tolls and without making any other concessions, I'd say this is probably the worst the United States has ever lost a war. Truly a shocking outcome, if it holds.

"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux@bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 5mo ago

So apparently the ceasefire deal includes Iran continuing to charge tolls (split with Oman) on transit through the Strait, as reported by the NYT, AP and others. If that's true, I have a hard time seeing this as anything other than a capitulation by Trump. Just abject surrender.