New CBO paper: every $1 of federal R&D returns ~$3–$4 of GDP in present value over 30 years www.nber.org/papers/w35472

Manager pay and pay inequality have increased substantially since the 1980s. Manager pay reflect that managers increase the firm’s productivity which in turn affects market power. New paper by Eeckhout, Bao, and De Loecker www.restud.com/manager-pay-... #REStud #EconSky

New Census Working Paper: "You’re (not) Hired: Artificial Intelligence and Early Career Hiring in the Quarterly Workforce Indicators" by Lee C. Tucker www.census.gov/library/work...

You’re (not) Hired: Artificial Intelligence and Early Career Hiring in the Quarterly Workforce Indicators

Early career hires in the industries most exposed to AI dropped by 9% after ChatGPT's release, explaining a 12% decline in employment through early 2025.

census.gov

New BTOS AI Supplement from Census released today. AI use for any business function varies dramatically across sectors and firm size. In AI intensive use sectors, employment-weighted AI use 60-70% -- compared to 32% economy-wide employment weighted. See www.census.gov/library/work...

The Microstructure of AI Diffusion: Evidence from Firms, Business Functions, and Worker Tasks

Using new Business Trends and Outlook Survey data, we find AI use prevalent in large firms and knowledge-intensive sectors; augments tasks; labor declines rare.

census.gov

We have two predoc positions opening. Work with us to build cool public data products and gain a ton of research experience using administrative data at Census!

Andrew Foote@afoote-econ.bsky.social · 5mo ago

🚨 Pre-Doc Opportunity at LEHD 🚨 Do you know graduating seniors or recent graduates in economics, math or statistics? The LEHD group at Census is hiring up to 2 positions in this category. Apply following the instructions here: www.census.gov/about/census... If you have questions, DM me!

🚨 Pre-Doc Opportunity at LEHD 🚨 Do you know graduating seniors or recent graduates in economics, math or statistics? The LEHD group at Census is hiring up to 2 positions in this category. Apply following the instructions here: www.census.gov/about/census... If you have questions, DM me!

Economic Measurement and Research Internship (EMRI) Program

The EMRI program seeks to hire interns in economics, accounting and related fields to support the nation’s growing demand for information.

census.gov

All research is exploratory if you’re confused enough

NBER launches initiative on economic measurement. nber.org/news/nber-la...

NBER Launches Initiative on Economic Measurement

nber.org

Hey #EconSky 📈📉 Excited to finally share this working paper with Roozbeh Hosseini and Martin Gervais. "Unemployment Insurance, Wage Pass-Through, and Endogenous Take-up" www2.census.gov/library/work... A Short 🧵:

Forthcoming in the AER: "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter" by J. Carter Braxton, Kyle Herkenhoff, Jonathan Rothbaum, and Lawrence Schmidt. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter

(Forthcoming Article) - For whom has earnings risk changed, and why? We answer these questions by combining the Kalman filter and EM-algorithm to estimate persistent and temporary earnings for every i...

aeaweb.org

I love economic history because for instance, you discover that a bicycle bubble happened in Great Britain during the 1890s

Duncan Weldon@duncanweldon.bsky.social · 12mo ago

V good, v interesting & open access. An excellent combination. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

A fun/important little piece with @AtlantaFed colleagues. Our survey center asked firms how exposed their supply chain was to imports. More import-intensive firms expect to raise prices more *and* the more their competitors import,the more they'll raise. www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...

Will Tariffs Touch Off an Inflationary Impulse? Business Execs Think So.

This Policy Hub paper uses survey data to explore tariffs' potential inflationary impact and how it could spill over beyond those firms directly affected.

atlantafed.org

reminder that midwest macro's submission deadline is coming up! www.clevelandfed.org/events/2025/...

Fall 2025 Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland will host the Fall 2025 Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting on November 13-14, 2025. All conference activities will take place at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland...

clevelandfed.org

ROFL = Real Outliers Fatally Lanced TLDR = Too Lazy; Didn't Research SMH = So Many Hypotheses BRB = Bayes ... Really, Bayes? IMHO = Is My Hypothesis Obvious? DND = Distribution Not Defined FAFO = Fanciful Analysis of Four Observations JC = Jointly Comical NFI = Never Forget Independence

N = 16 workers Workers were assigned to do multiple tasks The authors don't cluster standard errors I don't think we learn much from this study.

METR@metr.org · last yr.

We ran a randomized controlled trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up experienced open-source developers. The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.

We ran a randomized controlled trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up experienced open-source developers. The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.

The American Time Use Survey is up for renewal, or cancellation. OMB is gathering input on the data's importance. @ipums.bsky.social organized a rapid response briefing to equip us with tools to effectively comment. #EconSky #sociology #policysky Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Rapid Response Data Briefing: American Time Use Survey. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.

Did you know that the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) is up for renewal? Join us to learn: - What's in the ATUS? - Why is ATUS important? - What are the risks facing its continued collection and publi...

us06web.zoom.us

This is a really good conference put on by the Bureau of Economics of the Federal Trade Commission. Submit a paper for the program via the link below. #economics #antitrust #econsky www.ftc.gov/news-events/...

Eighteenth Annual Microeconomics Conference

The Federal Trade Commission's Bureau of Economics and the Tobin Center for Economic Policy at Yale University will host the 18th Annual FTC Microeconomics Conference on November 13 and 14, 2025 in

ftc.gov

Just posted updated version of our DID textbook! We now have drafts of all chapters, including the one on general designs! Now you can tell your friends still on X that they are DID-outdated :-) Happy easter for those of you that celebrate it. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

*Please repost* @sjgreenwood.bsky.social and I just launched a new personalized feed (*please pin*) that we hope will become a "must use" for #academicsky. The feed shows posts about papers filtered by *your* follower network. It's become my default Bluesky experience bsky.app/profile/pape...

538-style poll collection has now been recreated by a small group of fans and former staff. all fully transparent and public now. return of live public aggregation is imminent docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Polls

docs.google.com

Forthcoming at the Journal of Political Economy: We find that consumer product markups increased more than 25 percent from 2006 to 2019. One contribution is an approach to estimate IO-style models at scale, yielding flexible consumer preferences and estimates of marginal costs.

Looking to do a fully funded, policy-relevant PhD in economics? The ESRC has funded another joint CMA PhD studentship, this time with Lorenza Rossi and Stefano Fasani at Lancaster University, on the interaction of market power, price setting and macro dynamics. Please share widely and apply!

ESRC CASE PhD Studentship - Lancaster University

lancaster.ac.uk

It's a very sad day. Just notified that @iza.org is closing its doors as of 31 December 2025. At a time when labor is under attack and technological change moves at an ever-faster pace, I can't help but think that this is a short-sighted decision. My heart goes out to those folks who work there.

🚀 Exciting Opportunity! 🚀 #AI keeps me up at night. What will happen to work & workers? 🤔 I'm partnering with Schmidt Sciences to offer up to $200,000 in funding for early-career researchers! 💡 🗓️ Apply by March 31 2025 🙏 spread the word! 🔗 Learn more & apply schmidtsciences.org/ai-at-work #EconSky

Call for Papers! 4th DC Search and Matching will be 4/25-26. Submission deadline 3/10. Send us your papers! www.cvent.com/c/abstracts/...

Heads up for anyone interested in the labour market impacts of AI: Anthropic has released new data mapping conversations with Claude onto occupational tasks.

Alex Tamkin@alextamkin.bsky.social · last yr.

How is AI being used across the economy? We have some new research and datasets to share: Paper: assets.anthropic.com/m/2e23255f1e... Data: huggingface.co/datasets/Ant... Blogpost: anthropic.com/news/the-ant... 1/

We just launched a 16TB archive of every dataset that has been available on data.gov since November. This will be updated day by day as new datasets appear. It can be freely copied, and we're sharing the code behind it to help others make their own archives of data they depend on.

Announcing the Data.gov Archive | Library Innovation Lab

Today we released our archive of data.gov on Source Cooperative. The 16TB collection includes over 311,000 datasets harvested during 2024 and 2025, a complet...

lil.law.harvard.edu

In NYC there is a shop selling cashmere sweaters for dogs, in Amsterdam there is a toothbrush shop. If you are a goth looking for a partner you should move to a city. Finally, there is a forthcoming JET paper explaining this www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Spatial search

This paper considers a random search model where some locations provide sellers with better chances of meeting many buyers than other locations (for e…

sciencedirect.com

Finally out in AEJ:Macro👉 The Evolution of US Retail Concentration w/@dominicsmith.bsky.social Census data👉*National and local* concentration increased 1982-2012 Trends hold for product and industry markets 🔗https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20220249 @aeajournals.bsky.social