Eric Blake

@ericblake12.bsky.social

Senior Hurricane Specialist, NHC- posts are my own.

I wanted to get a video of this ghost crab but every time I got close to their hole they scuttled back in, so I tried getting clever with it. I made a little sandcastle and shoved my phone into it, hit record, and walked away. Crab was VERY suspicious of this addition to their environment.

Katrina 20 years later - my only saved picture from the event was of the great Max Mayfield and Billy Wagner looking serious/concerned, with me working radar (left) at landfall (thinking it would be close to a disaster but hopeful). Later that morning we found out it wasn’t close at all 😢

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Breathtaking video from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the stadium effect inside the eye of Hurricane Erin from last night’s pass These observations are crucial for improving forecasts and keeping people safe

I got permission to share this, and I'm extremely grateful for that. The Onion got this letter from one of our subscribers in Alaska. She works with dementia patients and decided to leave a copy in the car for each one. This email made my year. Read it and you'll see what I mean. People are good.


I work as an elder and hospice caregiver, which I am oddly passionate about. I can love on them shamelessly and no one complains about my codependence. It's a win-win situation. 

Many of my caregiving colleagues complain about the repetitive questions and, sometimes reactions, of the elderly, especially when those patients happen to read the newspaper, especially with the current downward spiral of our country — as if these people haven't lived through enough horror...

I love my dementia peeps, but sometimes wonder if there's a Guinness Book World Record for how many times an hour a dementia patient can repeat the same question — it's got to be in the hundreds. At least with small children, they ask different questions. Dementia patients will get stuck on one short question and ask it until you can interrupt their train(carousel) of thought and successfully redirect their attention. That carousel is pretty manic sometimes. 

A couple days ago, I picked up my mail from the post office and drove over to the nursing home to take (let's call her "Miss Daisy") Miss Daisy out for a drive. Before we took off on our road trip, to the end of The Road and back, in our landlocked little town (Juneau, Alaska), I set my copy of The Onion down in front of her. 

Over our two-hour excursion, tiny Miss Daisy read that front page at least a dozen times and each time she would snicker, giggle, and guffaw, then put it down on the dash board and, a minute later, discover it anew. I think it was the best afternoon of my life. We don't often hear them laugh and when they do, it's the sweetest thing you've ever heard. 

...

Thank you, thank you, thank you, for the really important work all of you do. You make the world a better place.

I sought comment from NOAA and the Department of Defense on this and received this reply today from NOAA's spokesperson. They suggest we use the surviving ATMS microwave that degrades significantly at the edges. You can see how much worse off we'd be with Erick last week if we only had ATMS.

NOAA official statement on the discontinuation of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) data that includes the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder or SSMIS. The full statement reads:
"The DMSP is a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools in the NWS portfolio. The current models continue to include data from:

·         GOES and other geostationary Earth-observing satellites
·         Polar-orbiting satellites, including Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and EUMETSAT MetOp
·         Hurricane Hunter aircraft reconnaissance missions and other aircraft-based observations
·         Observations on the ground and from buoys
·         Radiosondes and supplemental upper air soundings
·         Ground-based weather radar sites in the U.S. and neighboring countries
 
In particular, the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), currently flying on NOAA’s JPSS, provides the richest, most accurate satellite weather observations available. NOAA’s data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve.

For more information regarding DSMP, please reach out to the Department of Defense."Comparison of microwave imagery for Hurricane Erick last Wednesday, June 18th, from the Department of Defense Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder or SSMIS (top) and NOAA Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder or ATMS (bottom). SSMIS gives a strikingly detailed look of Erick's inner core, including its inner relic eyewall and outer eyewall. Because the ATMS scan degrades prominently on the edge of its swath, the ATMS shows only a collection of pixelated colors not useful for positioning the storm or estimating intensity.
Michael Lowry@michaelrlowry.bsky.social · last yr.

A huge blow was dealt to hurricane forecasters this week as a critical tool was abruptly terminated by the Department of Defense and NOAA. The immediate discontinuation of data from three weather satellites will severely impact hurricane forecasts this season and beyond. More ⬇️

A comparison of what we see from geostationary infrared imagery vs. what we get when passive microwave imagery like what SSMIS provides is available. This is Hurricane Otis in 2023 as it was gearing up for extremely rapid intensification prior to impacting Acapulco as a category 5 storm.

I did a handful of interviews yesterday on the imminent shutdown of SSMIS data flow and the expected consequences for hurricane forecasting at NHC. I've tried to collect and polish up my thoughts on the topic, attached...

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Not going to lie, I cried a bit when I got the email that SSMIS was being discontinued. I developed D-MINT with a toddler in tow, showing her pretty pictures of hurricanes so she knew what Mommy did while she's playing with friends at school. This one hurts.

Michael Lowry@michaelrlowry.bsky.social · last yr.

A huge blow was dealt to hurricane forecasters this week as a critical tool was abruptly terminated by the Department of Defense and NOAA. The immediate discontinuation of data from three weather satellites will severely impact hurricane forecasts this season and beyond. More ⬇️

Please enjoy this ridiculously cute butterfly, which was about the size of my pinkie fingernail. It's in the butterfly family called metalmarks (Riodinidae). Males, like these, have reduced front legs and perch using only the rear 4 (females can use all 6). Sarota acantus; Costa Rica 🐙🌿 #insects

A macro photo, front three-quarter view, of a little butterfly perched on a green leaf. The butterfly has pale green eyes with black speckles, legs covered in thick yellow fuzzy hair, and orange wings sprinkled with metallic light blue patches. It is very cute.A macro photo, side view, of a little butterfly perched on a green leaf. The butterfly has pale green eyes with black speckles, legs covered in thick yellow fuzzy hair, and orange wings sprinkled with metallic light blue bands and patches. It is very cute.

New — Here is a running list of Dept. of Health and Human Services (HHS) offices that have either been fully eliminated or gutted into non-functionality as a result of today's mass firings (provided to me directly by a CDC staffer):

NCCDPHP
Division of Reproductive Health
Division of Population Health 
   BCSB 
   EPI branch
   Prevention Research Translation Branch
Office of Smoking and Health  

NCHHSTP
Division of TB elimination
-Communication, Education, and Behavioral Studies Branch 
PBEMB
 
GLOBAL 
Division of HIV and TB 
Communications Branch
SPIN
SPICE
PBEMB
MCHB
HIDMSB
EHSRB
Scientific Integrity Branch

NCEH 
Division of Environmental Science/Practice Asthma and Air Quality branch 
















NCIRD 
ISD/Partnerships 

NIOSH 
Miner safety 
Health effects lab division 
Respiratory health division 

NCBDDD
Office of the Director 
Disability Health 

NCIPC 
Division of Violence Prevention
Division of Injury Prevention 
OD
Office of Health Equity

OCOO
Office of Human Resources

As the weather community experiences tremendous challenges, I couldn't chose a better cause to promote. Please consider showing your support for Andy Hazelton as he and his family explore next steps following federal employment layoffs this week. gofund.me/8020498c

Donate to Weathering the Storm: Support for Andy Hazelton, organized by Lisa Bucci

We need your help! Andy is the guy in the office who loves his job and cowo… Lisa Bucci needs your support for Weathering the Storm: Support for Andy Hazelton

gofund.me

Ever wonder what snow in the swamp would look like? This is 5 miles into the Louisiana swamps in the Atchafalaya basin... it's unreal... having lived down there for the first 28 years of my life, we never saw anything like this. Smashed records. Curtesy of Garrett Roberts.