rev. howard arson

@theophite.bsky.social

god created him and demanded that he die

Looks like a 10-15 point polling miss in Michigan regardless of who wins. And people have been writing a lot of electability takes using this data. It’s dangerous out there folks be safe

At the risk of ruining my mentions, I want to remind my centrist friends that “vote blue no matter who” also applies when Dems nominate a leftist. We need to be single focused on winning back the Senate. We cannot do that without Michigan.

I think people doomsaying El-Sayed are kind of stupid on this here website, he's not loony enough to run more than a point or two behind a more centrist candidate and the environment will more than make up for that. I think they're also idiots for calling Stevens the anti-christ.

Dana Houle@danahoule.bsky.social · 2d ago

I kinda think El-Sayed will win, but it’s a total guess, I have no confidence that’s correct. But here’s a prediction I make with great confidence: If Stevens wins narrowly, & it’s in part because she dominated w Black voters, this place is going to get real ugly.

I think the takeaway from this recent set of primaries is that running against Republicans is good and running against other Democrats is bad. Notably, this means that as a progressive, you might have an easier time because moderates turn fire on you first because you back things voters like.

My prior here is that 1) people are processing “favorable to DSA” as “more left” (synonymous with “more liberal”) and 2) Trump’s support of tariffs polarizes the issue so the further you feel from republicans, the worse feelings you express about Trump’s policies.

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · yesterday

DSA-aligned Democrats are now the most pro-free-trade voting bloc in the United States, in an incredible turn of events www.theargumentmag.com/p/who-suppor...

A graph showing whether voters support or oppose free trade by party identification, showing 54% of "Dems favorable to DSA" strongly support free trade agreements

Why the fuck do so many people who should know better want to engage in a little conspiracy-brained anti-modern crankery as a treat? A MAHA-curious liberal/leftist will tell you their version is less dangerous than the one favored by reactionary centrist Atlantic writers (transphobia). It isn't.

MAHA is a eugenicist movement and you do not negotiate with eugenicists. This is a thing a high proportion of people who will tell you not to frequent the Nazi bar apparently forget when the patrons of the Nazi bar share their priors about food dyes or whatever.

In the United States, on January 20, 2025, the air, the food, the medicine, the water were all as clean and pure and safe as they have ever been in this country. Yeah, sure, there were and are real problems, and our army of nerds in lab coats devoted to solving them was the envy of the world.

You actually don't have to do the "well, you know, I disagree with MAHA but they're right that there are real problems with The System" thing. That's a concession you absolutely do not have to make.

i dont think policy is irrelevant (there are many places progressives simply cannot win but a moderate democrat might be able to) but we are in dramatically short supply of moderates who’s motivations are understandable and sympathetic to normal people

yeah, the issue with viewing elections as a linear algebra problem where you solve for the optimal policy platform is that you tend to generate candidates that cant credibly signal that they believe any of this

LOWρUFO 🇺🇦🇵🇸🌍@lowrhoufo.bsky.social · 3d ago

I don't think there's some silent progressive majority out there in waiting, but I do think running candidates who are a lot less apollonian can move a significant number of feet, and the center is very bad at producing those