Joshua G. Schraiber

@jgschraiber.bsky.social

Evolutionary biologist, computational biologist, statistician. I like to develop mathematical models of evolutionary process and see how they fit to data. I also like cities where building apartments is legal and greatly dislike fascism

Kevin is not exaggerating, VDARE was not white nationalist in the sense of "well if you get right down to it the modern GOP has always been white nationalist" VDARE was white nationalist in the sense of "yeah those Nazis sure are white nationalist"

Kevin M. Kruse@kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 1h ago

Gonna go out on a limb here and say racist cranks who write for extremist white nationalist websites like VDARE should not, in fact, be confirmed to top roles in the Department of Justice.

There is not an industry on planet earth that could have gone >2 decades without a cost of living adjustment and be healthy. But that is what science is like now. I just got notice that some of our service costs are going up ~9%. Microscopes are up >300% in price over the last 2 decades. etc...

I don't think anyone has any idea of how thin the margins are in science. To have funding agencies or private foundations come back on a proposal and ask you to cut 10-20%, or more from a project simply means the work cannot be done. Modular grants have not been adjusted for inflation in >20yrs.

If “party leadership and centrists immediately fall behind El-Sayed to defeat the Republican” does not align with your priors about the Democratic Party you should both reflect on why and also update those priors

Takes like this are very tempting but IMO go too far. The polling miss last night was historically exactly average for a primary — no evidence polls have gotten worse recently. And remember 2022 had the most accurate House and Senate polls in history! bsky.app/profile/gell...

Adam Serwer@adamserwer.bsky.social · 7h ago

There’s no actual alternative to polling but I just don’t believe they capture public sentiment in any reliable way anymore

holy shit -- Schiff ties Trump's judicial nominees in knots by asking them who won the 2016 before *before* asking them who won in 2020, which results in them sounding like election deniers about Trump's victories!

2. Be the most prepped person in the meeting. Read the bill many times; read all the analysis; read all the position letters; know the policy substance; have examples. I would say that in 80% of meetings I'm in, most people present haven't done some/any of this, and they will yield if you have.

Some things I've learned about legislative advocacy, and I think my record speaks for itself. 1. Start by asking for everything you want. Stop preemptively negotiating against yourself. The process of passing the bill will whittle it down. Why started with a whittled down product?

Whenever a journal yells at me about an overdue review and says something like "authors want their reviews back quickly!" I'm like "I absolutely do not want my reviews back quickly, I submitted that, I want it off my plate for 3 months"

This. A thousand times this. Winning elections after Republicans screw everything up isn't a thing I'm seriously worried about. We'll probably do this. It's the short attention span theater where people put the ones that broke it in power again before it can be fully fixed.

This is just how things have been for decades. Republicans blow up the government, Democrats are left to fix the mess, voters are mad that the mess isn't instantly fixed, so they vote for Republicans again. Also racism, that's the other reason they vote for Republicans.

"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux@bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 3h ago

I fundamentally do not know how to square the politics whereby Democrats will essentially have to tell the American people that because they (the voters) made an extremely stupid decision, they need to lower their expectations substantially for the foreseeable future, but here we are.

as noted yesterday, Trump has now come around to treating an Iranian toll system covering the Strait of Hormuz as a given. Hard to overstate the level of strategic failure. US started the war purely as a war of choice and ends up dramatically empowering Iran and given the Iranian govt big wins.

Bill Grueskin@bgrueskin.bsky.social · 4h ago

Reuters: Iran wants fees of 5%-7% of the price of cargo from ships using the strait; Oman wants 3%. "Making fees voluntary, at least nominally, could be a way out of the impasse, although an implied threat of Iranian attacks could mean shippers would be ​unlikely to risk transit without paying."